Turkish-US Relations: Heightened Tensions but Not the End of an Alliance

A Turkish national employed by the US Consulate in Istanbul was detained by the authorities in his country on October 4, 2017, and charged with spying for a foreign government and attempting to harm the constitutional order and the legitimate government of Turkey, kicking off a wave of reciprocal punitive volleys between Ankara and Washington. The first strike was the freezing of all non-immigrant visas granted by all US consulates across Turkey, announced by Washington’s Embassy in Ankara. This was met by a similar announcement from the Turkish Embassy in Washington, which directly reciprocated the measure by denying all visas for US nationals.

Recent tension between Washington and Ankara is the latest round in a conflict that has been building up since 2013. Some of the flashpoints of this conflict include:

Regime Change in Syria: Turkey supported the ouster of Bashar Al Assad from power in Damascus from the very outset of the revolution in 2011. The United States on the other hand, in the form of the then-Obama Administration, pursued a much more ambiguous approach, which allowed it to declare its desire for Assad to leave power, while refusing to support any credible attempts to bring that about. The consequences of this ambiguity included the rise of extremist Islamist factions such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant as well as bolstering Iranian influence within Syria’s borders. Moscow’s direct involvement in the conflict, which came in September of 2015, completely overturned the direction of the Syrian conflict.
American Support for Kurdish Ambitions: Turkey was also angered by US support for the mainly Kurdish People’s Protection Units, and which it backed against ISIL and other groups in northern Syria. Turkey fears that the group, which it regards as an extension of the terrorist-designated Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), will seek to establish a Kurdish enclave in northern Syria in the vacuum left by ISIL.
Disenchantment with NATO: Turkey was left dissatisfied with the failure of the US and other NATO members to come to the aid of Turkey after a Russian military jet was shot down for violating Turkish airspace.
US Inconsistency regarding the Failed Coup: The US White House and State Department failed to provide a speedy or firm condemnation of the failed coup attempt in July 2016 in Turkey. Then Secretary of State John Kerry called for “calm” during his first response to the crisis rather than demanding the protection of constitutional democratic rule[1]. In fact, a statement by the US Embassy in Ankara described the events as a “rebellion”, and made no mention of a mutiny in the ranks of the Turkish military[2]. In fact, official American denouncements of the planned coup were issued only after it emerged that the plot was falling apart. Later, Secretary of State Kerry even went as far as warning the Turkish authorities of the consequences of “excessive” retribution in the wake of the failed coup, in reference to the attempts to purge the military ranks of the coup conspirators as well as alleged tightening of media and other freedoms by the Turkish government. The allegations of increased censorship by the Turkish authorities led Kerry to question Turkey’s NATO membership, warning that being a part of the alliance “had implications for democracy”[3]. This last allegation in particular led to Turkish recriminations that the United States was in fact behind the coup plot, particularly when the latter refused to extradite the cleric Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish preacher who fell out with Erdogan’s Islamist government and exiled himself to Pennsylvania, USA[4].

The US alone bases 2,700 personnel and scores of tactical nuclear missiles in Incirlik, while the Izmir base is the main permanent base for NATO ground forces. Taken together, all of this suggests that a rupture in Turkey’s relations with its Western allies would have significant negative consequences for the stability of the Middle East and beyond. One possible repercussion for a breakdown of Turkey’s relations with the rest of NATO would be a surge in the numbers of Syrian refugees entering Western Europe. Notably, a number of Turkish threats made against the United States have yet to materialize. These include the possibility, floated in media reports, of kicking US forces out of the Incirlik Airbase and preventing of US-supported Kurdish forces from advancing on Raqqa in Syria. The Pentagon also made clear that its own military operations based out of Turkey were not adversely affected by the recent escalation in tensions between the two governments.

Mutual codependence between the United States and Turkey ensures that this latest escalation of tensions will not evolve into a full-scale breakdown of the alliance. Nonetheless, it is clear that we are presently witnessing the birth pangs of a new arrangement, in which Turkey realigns its present position regarding the West and Russia, without switching alliances outright. This is a result of Turkey’s traditional alliances with Western powers failing to provide it with the protection it craves in its complex geostrategic environment. For its part, the United States cannot afford to lose such a strategically valuable Muslim partner to Russia and or Iran.