On Saturday, 22 October 2022, The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies opened the Ninth Annual Gulf Studies Forum at its Doha premises. This round is titled “The Ukraine Crisis, Regional and International Competition, and the Future of Energy and Security in the Gulf.”
This year, the forum discusses the political, security and economic repercussions of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine, with 23 research papers being presented over seven sessions and a public lecture. The opening of the forum was attended by members of Qatar’s Shura Council, and several foreign ambassadors and consuls, in addition to academics and media outlets based in the Gulf.
Professor Khaled Al-Maadeed opened the Forum with a speech in which he emphasized value of the yearly event, launched by the Arab Center in December 2014, as an academic platform uniquely specialized in studying Gulf affairs the most pressing political, economic, social and cultural issues in the region. Eight rounds have been organized so far, based on social and economic reforms in the GCC, education, economic diversification, the blockade of Qatar, social transformations and the question of identity and values in the Gulf, public policy-making, security, Gulf relations with the Us and Iran, sovereign funds, and the response of the Arab Gulf states to the global Covid-19 pandemic. This year, the Forum continues its endeavour to address the most prominent issues facing the region, represented by the Ukraine crisis and its impact on the Gulf. Despite its distance from conflict, the Gulf found itself at the heart of the crisis. Al-Maadeed ended by announcing the establishment of a new unit at the Arab Center, dedicated to studying the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula, to better understand the role of this region in international politics, diplomacy, the global economy, sports, media and energy. The unit will produce in-depth research in order to fill a gap in the quantity and quality of current studies on the region and related issues.
Rashid Hamad Al-Nuaimi chaired the first session, introducing the panel exploring “The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on Gulf International Relations (1)”. The first speaker, Abdullah al-Shaiji, presented his paper “How Does Russia’s war on Ukraine affect US-Gulf Relations?” in which he sought to answer whether Gulf neutrality has become a burden on relations with its US ally and protector. Giorgio Cafiero followed with his study “Implications of the Ukrainian Crisis for Relations between Arab Gulf States and Russia,” in which he examines the varying efforts of all six GCC states to deepen their ties with Moscow in recent years.
Session 2 continued with “The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on Gulf International Relations (2)”, chaired by Ghanim Al-Najjar. Jonathan Fulton began with his paper “The Ukrainian Crisis and the Future of Gulf Relations with China,” arguing that Beijing has become a vital partner for all GCC member states. Fatiha Dazi-Héni followed with her paper “The Ukrainian Crisis and Geopolitical Shifts in the Arab Gulf Region,” arguing that the Gulf states are primed to occupy a central strategic place for the EU in light of the Ukraine crisis.
The third session “The Impact of the Ukraine Crisis on Gulf Regional Relations,” was chaired by Mohammed Al-Mesfer. Saban Kardas presented “The Implications of the Ukraine crisis on Relationship between the GCC countries and Türkiye,” which discussed the relations between Türkiye and the GCC in a dynamic and changing geopolitical atmosphere post-Ukraine crisis. The last study of the day, “The Russian War on Ukraine and the Future of the Nuclear Agreement with Iran,” was presented by Mahjoob Zweiri and argues that the ongoing war in Ukraine created an opportunity to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, but that the opening was nevertheless tied to Russia's opposition to the revival of the agreement.
Closing the first day of the conference, Marwan Kabalan introduced a public lecture by Charles A. Kupchan on “The Ukraine War and Its Geopolitical Implications,” followed by a Q&A session. Kupchan, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York and Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University, discussed Moscow's strategic partnership with Beijing and the already building tension between the United States and China. This raises the spectre of mounting geopolitical rivalry between the West and a Sino-Russian bloc stretching from the Western Pacific to Eastern Europe. He argued that the Gulf states could benefit from greater independence when making regional decisions as a result of the ensuing global multipolarity, especially as trade and geopolitical cooperation with China increases.
