​The Iranian Studies Unit Fifth Annual Conference, titled “Iran and the Changing Strategic Landscape of the Middle East” commenced on Wednesday, 17 September 2025. The two-day event gathers researchers and experts from around in an academic space for participants to examine various aspects of Iranian foreign and security policy in relation to its immediate environment and the rest of the Middle East.

Mehran Kamrava, Professor of Government at Georgetown University Qatar and Head of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies (ACRPS), convened the program with opening remarks, in which he welcomed the participating researchers and attendees.

The opening remarks session was immediately followed by a keynote address by Dr Saeed Khatibzadeh, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister and President of the Institute of Political and International Studies (IPIS). In his speech “Iran’s Perspective on Security Circumstances in the Region,” Khatibzadeh called out Israel’s targeted killing of many of Iran’s commanders in the middle of the night and reiterated that this attack “failed to paralyze” Iran’s armed forces, noting that Tehran “balanced and pushed” back against the aggressor Israel for the first time in the latter’s history. Khatibzadeh emphasized that the region is undergoing a transition, urging a collective action to address this up and rising motion: “I don’t want to be alarming, but everything alarms us.” Addressing Syria under the former Bashar Al-Assad regime, Khatibzadeh addressed the questions around the Arab world’s chronic distrust with Iran, emphasizing that post-revolution Iran “is an issue which was securitized, demonized by Americans by those who couldn’t digest the new realities in Iran […] the only country who dared to attack Iran was an Arab country, was a majority Shi’i country, Iraq.” “History is not going to haunt us, we have to build out trust based on the realities for the future,” he added, further noting that similar to other countries, Tehran has its own legitimate interest and threat perception. He warned against the “active campaign of demonization” coming from mainstream media to deviate the attention of people in the region from the Israeli occupation and the Palestine question.

The first panel, “Iran’s Deterrence Models and National Security Revisions,” moderated by Aicha Elbasri, hosted papers by Hamidreza Azizi, Saeed Shokoohi, and Mohammad Seyam. Presenting on his paper “The Collapse of ‘Forward Defense’: Rethinking Iran’s National Security Doctrine After the Twelve-Day War,” Azizi examined the collapse of Iran’s “forward defense” doctrine in the wake of the 2023–2025 regional escalation culminating in the June 2025 war with Israel. He argued that Iran’s doctrine has unraveled as its strategy to deter conflict through strategic depth, delegated deterrence, and hybrid military capabilities proved ineffective under direct confrontation. He further noted that Iran’s future deterrence doctrine will require more than incremental adjustments; it requires a redefinition of power projection, security and economic vulnerabilities, among other needs. Shokoohi on the other hand presented on “Operational Code: A Framework for Understanding Tehran's Perspective on the Middle Eastern Turmoil,” in which he explained how Iran’s foreign policy behaviour has long posed analytical challenges, particularly amid recent regional upheavals and following Israel’s 13 June surprise attack. He found that Iran’s foreign policy is driven by a combination of metaphysical convictions, moral confrontation, strategic calculation, and ideological commitment. In the same panel, Seyam’s presentation on “The Limits of Deterrence by Proxy: Iran’s Strategic Response to Israel's Regional Confrontation After 7 October 2023” focused on Iran's strategic posture and regional influence following the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel. He argued that Tehran’s regional strategy has suffered unprecedented degradation between 2023 and 2025 as a result of key proxies being neutralized, strategic assets getting destroyed, and Iran’s ability to deter Israel being questioned.

The second panel “Transnationalism and the Nuclear Question in Iran’s Security Strategy” was moderated by Ayat Hamdan. Abdolrasool Divsallar presented his paper titled “The Failure of Hyper Nuclear Latency as a Deterrence Model: The Case of Iran”. He argued that due to conventional military weaknesses, Iran would require years to overcome the complex challenges of integrating a nuclear warhead into its military and developing a nuclear doctrine. In the second paper of the session, “Iran and Regional Hegemony: The Role of Ideational and Material Elements and Endeavours to Achieve It Through the Nuclear Program and Proxies”, Adel Al-Hawatmeh looked into the role of material and ideational elements in shaping Iran’s identity and national interest. He found that ideational elements, in this case, Iran’s narrative discourse, are more influential in its pursuit of regional hegemony in the Middle East than material elements such as reliance on regional proxies or the nuclear program. Mohammad Amin Ahmadi and Rooholamin Saeidi closed the second panel presentations with their joint paper titled, “Iran’s Balancing Strategy Against Israel After the Gaza War”. They shed light on how the weakening of Iran’s alliances has undermined Iran’s position in the region and questioned how Iran is being pushed to restore this balance by heavily investing in its own internal military capabilities, specifically through the enhancement of its missile technology and potential changes in its nuclear doctrine.

The third and final panel of the day, “Iran’s Strategic Doctrine Post-October 7”, was moderated by Abdelfattah Mady. It started with Abbas Maleki and Maryam Hasheminejad’s presentation on “Iran’s Strategic Calculus After the 2023 Gaza War: Balancing Deterrence and Regional Security Coalitions”. The co-authors examined how in the case of Iran, coalition-based deterrence appears increasingly constrained as a conflict-prevention strategy, and that sovereign deterrence – while more prone to escalation risks – remains Tehran’s most dependable strategy. Reza Ekhtiari Amiri presented on “The New Order of Post-October 7 and the Shift in Iran’s Security Policy,” examined Iran’s security strategy, affected by the diminished power of its network of non-state allies and the shifting regional power dynamics following the war in Gaza, is characterized by a hybrid balancing approach, integrating both internal and external balancing strategies. And finally, in “Iran’s Deterrence Strategy Post-October 7 and the Regional Security Complex in the Gulf,” Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas explained how Iran’s deterrence-by-denial model – anchored in a forward defence strategy and sustained through the Axis of Resistance – has collapsed due to the fragmentation of its regional proxy network.

The second and final day of the conference will take place on Thursday, 18 September 2025, and will continue to feature experts on Iran who will explore how the Israeli genocide has triggered a chain of events across the region, including the 12 Day War precipitated by Israel’s 13 June 2025 attack on Iran. The discussions will also look at Tehran’s foreign and security policies and its adaptation to shifting regional dynamics. The conference will also shed light on Iran’s network of non-state alliances and the impact of Israeli actions in Palestine and beyond on those alliances. In addition, it will feature discussions on Iran’s evolving regional position in light of Israel’s war on Gaza, Iranian relations with regional non-state actors and the changing position of the “Axis of Resistance”, implications of Iran’s ballistic missile program, and Iran’s relations with the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Simultaneous translation is provided in English and Arabic.