Introduction
With shifts in regional dynamics and evolving relations between states, public perceptions across the Arab world have often been characterized by chronic skepticism toward Iran – an opinion that has incessantly remained constant over the years. Iran’s consolidation of its military doctrine as a result of the eight-year war with Iraq (1980-1988) served as a precursor to the country’s image as a looming threat. The regional status quo harbours the assumed Iranian threat and the consequential narrative that Iran is the ultimate source of instability in the region. This deliberate isolation pushes Tehran to navigate and prevail in the region through unconventional network of alliances and brazen political projections to secure its national security and survival in a region that favours its isolation. The Arab world’s perception of Iran is a multifaceted issue shaped by historical tensions, ideological divides, and shifting political alliances within the region.[1] The genocidal war in Gaza and the conflict in the broader Middle East have, however, shifted narratives around Iran’s political and military role among Arab populations, offering fresh insights into the dynamics of regional opinion. The 2024 report Arab Public Opinion about the Israeli War on Gaza demonstrates that despite the continuation of the perceived Iranian threat in the region – with little to no change in the threat level since 2022 – there is a more favourable outlook toward Iran due to its role in the Israeli war on Gaza.[2] This report examines these evolving perceptions, drawing on the latest findings from
The2022 Arab Opinion Index and the
Arab Public Opinion about the Israeli War on Gaza.
This report builds on what previous data, including the
2019/2020 Arab Opinion Index, gathered on Arab sentiment toward Iran, which underscored persistent Arab perceptions of Iran as a destabilizing power and a major regional threat. The latest report on the Arab public perceptions of Iran was released by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in 2020, which is based on the data collected in the
2017-2018 Arab Opinion Index and
The 2019-2020 Arab OpinionIndex.[3] The key finding of the report was that Iran has been consistently seen as a major source of instability in the region since 2011. Additionally, the
Arab Opinion Toward Iran 2019/2020 reveals a widespread approval among Arabs regarding the US withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the EU+3.[4] Moreover, Iran’s policies in Palestine, Syria, and Yemen were viewed negatively by twice as many people as those viewing them in a positive light.[5]
Considering the recent developments in the region, this paper aims to assess how Arab perspectives toward Iran have evolved in response to escalating military and geopolitical tensions, particularly around Gaza. By conducting a comparative analysis of the data from 2016 until 2024, we navigate shifting sentiment that reflect both immediate reactions to the Gaza war and broader patterns over time. This report highlights the complexities of regional opinion and illuminates underlying variables, including national identity, religious affiliation, and political alignment, that shape these perspectives by tracking changing perceptions towards Iran across different Arab states. The findings reveal that despite the continuous fluctuations in Arab perceptions towards Iran, it is still perceived as a major threat to the security of the region. Nevertheless, during the latest Israeli war on Gaza, Iran received the most positive feedback among assessments of country positions towards the war on Gaza, with a positive response of 48 per cent.[6]
The findings presented here contextualize public opinion as an intricate, evolving response to Iran’s strategic positioning within the Arab world. The findings reflect both the collective consciousness informed by historical and ideological factors as well as the nuanced shifts in attitudes reflecting the Arab public’s response to the region’s volatile landscape. Through these insights, the report provides a critical lens through which to understand the Arab-Iranian dynamic, underscoring the implications for regional stability and the Arab world’s broader geopolitical outlook.
[1] The Arab Opinion Index survey of 2022 included respondents from Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and the West Bank in Palestine.
[2] Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies,
Arab Public Opinion about the Israeli War on Gaza (Doha: ACRPS, 2024): 17.
[3] Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies,
2017-2018 Arab Opinion Index (Doha: Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, 2018); Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies,
TheArab Opinion Index 2019/2020 (Doha: Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, 2020): 1.
[4] Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies,
Arab Opinion Toward Iran 2019/2020 (Doha: Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, 2020): 14.
[5] Ibid., 15.
[6] Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies,
TheArab Opinion Index 2019/2020, 44.
