Regime Elite Turnover in the Waning Syrian Civil War (2016-2021): A Socio-Economic Approach
Studies 27 February, 2023

Regime Elite Turnover in the Waning Syrian Civil War (2016-2021): A Socio-Economic Approach

Ammar Shamaileh

Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

Mohammed Zahr

Researcher. He received his Master’s degree in the Political Science and International Relations from the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

Alan Aloskan

Researcher. He received his Master’s degree in the Political Science and International Relations from the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.

This article presents an analysis of changes that occurred in the landscape of the political and economic elites during the Syrian Civil War and focuses in particular on transformations that ensued once the regime’s focus turned away from winning the war and toward consolidating power. It argues that weak leaders operating in networks where regime elites are fractured can find themselves in a state of “precarious stability”, where there is no need to immediately engage in power–sharing with elites but the potential for elite networks to evolve into a threat is high. In such cases, leaders are motivated by strategic incentives to make frequent changes to the elite landscape to prevent powerful networks from arising within the regime. This empirical analysis provides evidence that the Syrian regime’s efforts to maintain Assad’s rule have been characterised by drastic repeated changes to both who is favoured and the extent of their reach within Syria.


* This study was published in the 11th issue of AlMuntaqa, a peer-reviewed academic journal for the social sciences and humanities. You can read the full paper here.