On Saturday 27 February 2021, the Political Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies held an online symposium titled, “US Middle East Policy under the Biden Administration: Continuity and Change.” Marwan Kabalan, head of the political studies unit was joined by Haider Saeed, head of research at the ACRPS and Editor-in-Chief of Siyasat Arabiya, Samir Salha, Professor of Public International Law and International Relations, Daniel Bromberg, a non-resident senior fellow at the Arab Center in Washington; Sama’a al-Hamdani, Executive Director of the Yemeni Cultural Institute for Heritage and Arts; and Imad Harb, Director of Research and Analysis at the Arab Center in Washington. The symposium discussed the policy of the Biden administration towards Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

The first session, chaired by Abdelwahab El-Affendi, Acting President and Provost of the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, discussed the US policy under the Joe Biden administration towards Syria, Iraq and Turkey. Marwan Kabalan examined the features of the Biden administration’s foreign policy towards Syria, based on its philosophy and the positions of its main actors and the coalition that brought Biden to power on Syria, the domestic and foreign challenges and priorities, and both the support and opposition he faces in playing a bigger role in Syria. Kabalan concluded that Syria does not place highly on the Biden agenda, rather there is a clear intention to neglect it. US policy will remain focused on relations with the other three players, namely Iran, Turkey and Russia, in addition to Israel. There is a change in US policy priorities for Syria given the former President Trump’s priority to contain Iran. Biden, on the other hand, has returned to the Obama doctrine, with combatting ISIS at the top of his agenda, and pacifying the region to make way for the administration to deal with China’s increasing power. There is now a level of harmony between the White House, the Pentagon and the Department of State that was non-existent under Trump, a fact that is not necessarily positive for Syria; in fact, its ramifications may be far more damaging. Syrian unity could be at stake if Biden chooses to support the emergence of an autonomous administration led by the Syrian Democratic Forces east of the Euphrates. Kabalan argued the Biden administration should remove the Syrian issue from the dichotomy of terrorism and asylum and push towards resolving the conflict.

Haider Saeed focused on Biden’s policy towards Iraq and argued that the US policy towards Iraq since the US occupation in 2003 has been marked by several transformations. Between 2003 as 2006, the neoconservatives presented Iraq as a model for democratization, but this view quickly changed, beginning in 2006, with the rise of realists in the US. Between 2007 and 2017, Iraq transformed into a battlefield for a war on terror, accompanied by the US absence following Obama’s withdrawal from Iraq in 2011. Saeed added that the United States returned circumstantially to the Iraqi battlefield with the formation of the Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS in August 2014 and he believed that Iraq had turned into a proxy battleground to confront Iranian expansion under Trump. Saeed concluded by noting that the Biden administration’s foreign policy will be characterized by a return to diplomacy instead of military engagement, with the administration’s “semi-ethical” commitment to Iraq. There are two constants governing US conduct in Iraq, namely: Iraq policy is not separate from Iran policy, and combatting terrorism is a priority.

Samir Salha spoke on the general trends that will govern bilateral relations between the United States and Turkey, indicating that US-Turkish relations will undergo some changes and discussing the dimensions of a potential confrontation between the Biden administration and the justice and development party. He believed that the differences between the two countries will be based on each party’s international and regional strategic options. Salha based his views on an analysis of their respective speeches, citing Biden’s statement during his election campaign to overthrow the Turkish president democratically. This forced the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to reject western tenets, accuse the United States of moving terrorist groups against Turkey, and supporting the attempted coup. Salha concluded his intervention by saying that any confrontation between Turkey and the United States will not be direct. Rather, it will be, according to him, in the "grey areas" that represent Syria, Iraq, the Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and the Mediterranean.

The second session, chaired by Khalil Jahshan, Executive Director of the Arab Center in Washington, discussed US policy under the Joe Biden administration towards Iran, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. Daniel Bromberg argued that the nature of the Iranian regime in Iran constitutes the basic framework for understanding the determinants of the relationship with the United States, as this regime is hostile to Washington, politically and socially, and refuses to normalize relations. In addition, he added that the Iranian political elite, despite the doctrinal and ideological façade, is split into two camps; one that calls for economic development and diversification, increasing oil and gas sales, interacting with the West, and building political, diplomatic and economic relations, and a camp calling for isolation from the West and trading with the East. Bromberg believes that Trump's decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement and re-impose sanctions on Iran has strengthened the hard-line camp. Bromberg concluded by saying that it is likely, despite these obstacles, that the United States and Iran open back channels to discuss the two parties' return to the nuclear agreement.

On Yemen, Sama’a al-Hamdani indicated that Biden is trying to emphasize that his policy is based on ending the war and alleviating human suffering. She argued that the US administration’s efforts to remove the designation of the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization are at the core of its policy and observed that President Biden's decision to temporarily suspend arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE came in response to the demands of humanitarian lobbyists in Washington since the start of the war in Yemen. She said that lifting the travel ban that had been imposed by Trump on the entry of nationals of some Arab and Islamic countries to the United States helped facilitate the travel of Yemenis to the United States, and contributed to the extension of temporary protection for Yemenis residing there. Al-Hamdani concluded by saying that the commitment of the United States to a permanent peace project in Yemen will face many complications without the interaction of the regional countries and the Yemeni conflicting parties on the ground. She noted that ending the war in Yemen is the key to improving the relationship between the United States and Iran; because ending the war and achieving stability in Yemen is easier than in Syria and Iraq.

The symposium concluded with Imad Harb’s intervention, wherein he presented three main frameworks for the potential US-Saudi relationship during Biden's tenure. In the first, he discussed the general framework of Saudi Arabia’s position in US foreign policy and the transformations that have taken place during the last decade regarding the US dependence on Saudi oil, combating terrorism and confronting Iran. He noted that the relationship between the two sides had undergone a great openness over the past four years, leaving the Biden administration a heavy legacy in the relationship with Saudi Arabia. Harb referred to the US position on the Middle East, especially towards the Gulf, and Washington’s desire in the last decade, to gradually withdraw from the region. He believes that Arab normalization with Israel contributed to reducing the severity of the US security and military responsibility in the region, adding that the US pivot to Asia does not mean a complete withdrawal from the Middle East. Finally, Harb expected that the change in US society, especially within the support base of the Democratic Party and their perceptions of Middle Eastern issues, including Saudi Arabia, will seriously contribute to strengthening US defense of human rights and democracy issues in the Middle East.