On 22 January 2024, the ACRPS Iranian Studies Unit (ISU) hosted a public lecture by Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, and James Anderson professorial lecturer in the Middle East Studies department at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS Europe). The lecture, titled “Iran’s Evolving Regional Strategy,” was moderated by Mehran Kamrava, Director of the ISU and Professor of Government at Georgetown University Qatar.

Vakil began by providing an overview of shifts in Iran’s regional approach, discussing its threat perceptions, and reflecting on how Tehran adapts and reacts to these changes. According to Vakil, “Tehran has been gradually adjusting its regional strategy to respond to external and internal opportunities, threats, and challenges”. These shifts that have impacted the regional landscape, include regional de-escalation and conflict fatigue, the role of the US in the region, the COVID-19 pandemic, and focus on economic diplomacy, and geopolitical competition.

Looking at Iran’s security priorities, the primary motivation of the Islamic Republic, according to Vakil, is regime survival to maintain the cohesion and unity of the political establishment. “Iran is primarily driven by its self-preservation and as part of that goal it seeks to transfer and push threats away from its borders and territory through asymmetrical investments”. Iran’s other objectives in the region are limiting the US regional presence and influence; expanding its base of support; weakening Sunni terrorist organizations; developing resources and expanding the potential for economic gain; and managing emergent threats. Vakil also addressed how Iran’s domestic politics has impacted its security strategy, claiming that the “combined and interconnected impact of US economic sanctions and repeated protests in Iran have exposed fragile domestic dynamics”.

On the so-called “axis of resistance”, Vakil stated that “Iran’s proxy network was made vulnerable by overexposure and overextension that has led Tehran to decentralize management of the axis of resistance”. She emphasized that while these groups may be coming together as an axis of resistance that share some sort of similar ideological goals, they operate within their own domestic contexts, as evident since the October 7 Hamas attack and the Israeli war on Gaza. Vakil also discussed the impact of Israel’s “Octopus” strategy, designed to push back against Tehran’s regional presence alongside its integration into the Arab world through the Abraham Accords. Lastly, Vakil highlighted that Iran’s outreach to the region, the GCC in particular, and its rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, signify Tehran’s belief that direct diplomacy is the way forward to exert influence and build economic bridges to keep its economy afloat.