The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Beirut presented the results of the 2025 Arab Opinion Index (AOI), conducted across 15 Arab countries, including Syria, where this type of survey has been carried out for the first time since the fall of Bashar al-Assad regime. The survey seeks to gauge trends in Arab public opinion on a range of political, economic, and social topics. political, economic, and social issues. The field survey included 40,130 respondents who were interviewed face-to-face within nationally representative samples in their respective countries, with a margin of error ranging between ±2% and 3%. In its ninth round, the AOI constitutes the largest public opinion survey in the Arab region, in terms of sample size, thematic scope, and number of countries covered. Its implementation involved 1,000 researchers, required more than 413,000 working hours, with field researchers travelling over one million kilometres to reach sampled areas across the Arab world.
The results were presented at an event organized by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies at the Gefinor Hotel in Beirut, attended by numerous political figures, as well as Lebanese academics, researchers, university professors, and individuals concerned with Lebanese public affairs.
Nasser Yassin, Director of the Arab Center in Beirut, opened the event by emphasizing that “the findings of the Arab Opinion Index survey are not merely opinions, but a treasure trove of data reflecting trends in Arab public opinion”. He added that the results will form a basis for dialogue and debate, as the Center seeks to transform its Beirut headquarters “into an intellectual space that brings together specialists, experts, and scholars to study issues of concern to Lebanon and the region, produce knowledge on these issues, and influence the processes and interventions related to state reconstruction and the advancement of society, the economy, and the environment”. Mohammed Al-Masri, Executive Director of the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies and Coordinator of the Arab Opinion Index project, then presented the survey findings, describing the Index as a landmark documentation of a pivotal knowledge milestone in the Center’s journey, marking the culmination of twelve years of cumulative work. Methodologically, the AOI represents the largest social survey and opinion poll in the Arab region, encompassing 15 Arab societies (from Mauritania in the west to the Gulf in the east). Notably, the Center managed to conduct the survey in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank amid wartime conditions, and has become the first independent research institution to carry out a comprehensive survey within Syria addressing economic, political, and identity-related issues.
Assessing the Situation: The Country is Heading in the “Wrong Direction”
The AOI findings, as presented by Mohammed Al-Masri, reveal a complex and grim picture of conditions in Lebanon. Economic and political crises intersect with the repercussions of the Israeli aggression, producing a state of deep instability. The results underscore the scale of public frustration among Lebanese citizens: 58% believe the country is heading in the “wrong direction”, citing a set of interrelated factors led by deteriorating economic conditions, the state of war Lebanon experienced in 2024, political disarray, the system's failure to fulfill its responsibilities, and poor public administration. By contrast, 39% of respondents consider Lebanon to be heading in the “right direction”, attributing this to the end of the war, the election of a new president, and the formation of a new government.
Security and the Economy: A Harsh Assessment
Public evaluations of security and economic conditions were equally stark. Eighty-five percent of Lebanese respondents described the level of security in their country as “bad or very bad”, while 86% assessed the economic situation as “negative”. Politically, 77% viewed the political situation in similarly negative terms.
Living Conditions and Economic Hardship: Sufficiency, Subsistence and Need
AOI data reveals harsh living realities for Lebanese households. Only 22% report that their household income covers necessary expenditures and leaves room for savings, while 50% live below the “subsistence level”, where income covers basic needs without allowing savings. Meanwhile, 22% report living in conditions of “deprivation and need”, relying on loans (36%), assistance from relatives (15%), or the sale of personal assets such as real estate, gold, and furniture (15%), while 12% resort to additional work to secure their basic livelihood.
Corruption: A Chronic Consensus
Financial and administrative corruption remains, according to Lebanese citizens, the primary obstacle to state-building. An overwhelming 97% agree that corruption is widespread in the country to varying degrees. Historical AOI data since 2011 indicates that these perceptions have not fundamentally changed, reflecting a persistent public sense that corruption is deeply entrenched within state structure. The findings also reveal sharp disparities in public trust toward state institutions. While the military and the General Security Directorate continue to enjoy high levels of trust, the executive, legislative and judicial authorities are marked by a severe erosion of public legitimacy. Parliament records the lowest level of trust at (36%), while 46% of Lebanese believe that the state does not apply the law equally at all, whereas 41% say it applies the law with favouritism and discrimination in favour of certain groups. Taken together, these indicators point to a profound crisis in the concept of citizenship and state legitimacy in Lebanon.
Democracy: Support and Frustration
Despite the multiple crises confronting Lebanon, Lebanese citizens remain committed to democracy as a system of governance. Eighty-five percent regard it as a guarantee of freedoms, equality, and justice, while 79% consider a democratic system the most suitable for Lebanon, and a majority reject authoritarian or one-party rule. At the same time, significant contradictions emerge. Fifty-one percent of respondents support a political system in which the military assumes power, a position that may be interpreted as a search for "stability" amid the failure of civilian political forces. Moreover, 55% state that they would not accept a political party with which they disagree coming to power through elections, indicating a crisis in accepting political pluralism.
Lebanese citizens rate the actual level of democracy in Lebanon at 5.8 out of 10, and their ability to criticize the government at 6.6, suggesting that Lebanese democracy appears to be only "halfway" realized
Political Disengagement and Apathy
Despite a relatively high level of public interest in political affairs (67%), political and civic participation remains extremely limited. Membership in civil society organizations does not exceed 2%, while party membership stands at 10%. The AOI attributes this “political disengagement” or “apathy” to a loss of confidence in the possibility of meaningful change within the current political system.
The Aftermath of the Israeli War
The Index devotes significant attention to the consequences of the Israeli war on Lebanon. Eighty-four percent of Lebanese report that the war imposed severe psychological pressure on them. A collective sense of tension and anxiety emerges (91%), alongside anger towards Israel (99%) and disappointment with the Arab position (91%). Regarding displacement, 76% of residents in areas targeted by the war and Israeli bombardment – southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs – state that they were forced to flee due to the destruction of surrounding homes (54%) or direct threats from the Israeli army (16%). In a notable expression of social solidarity, 88% of displaced people report feeling welcomed in the areas to which they relocated, while 87% of host communities describe their experience of receiving displaced persons as positive.
Politically, Lebanese opinion remains divided over the outcome of the war: 59% view it as a “defeat” compared with 38% who consider it a “victory”. In this context, 56% report that their perception of the Lebanese army has become more positive after the war, whereas 66% indicate that their view of Hezbollah has remained unchanged.
The Palestinian Cause and Attitudes toward Israel
The Palestinian cause continues to constitute a cornerstone of Lebanese consciousness. Sixty-seven percent of Lebanese consider it a cause belonging to all Arabs, not Palestinians alone. The AOI records overwhelming rejection (89%) of Lebanon's recognition of Israel, a position grounded in perceptions of Israel's “colonial and expansionist character”, rather than in religious or cultural considerations.
The United States: Predominantly Negative Perceptions
Lebanese perceptions of the United States have shifted sharply in a negative direction compared with data from a decade earlier. Today, 67% express negative attitudes toward Washington, with 52% attributing this primarily to its biased foreign policy, rather than to cultural or value-based differences. Lebanese respondents identify the policies of Israel (97%) and the United States (88%) as the principal sources of threat to the region's security and stability. In addition, 72% believe Washington seeks to impose its will globally, while 66% consider it to fuel sectarian conflicts in the region. Notably, the United States has declined as a preferred destination for emigration, medical treatment, and tourism by 30% to 37% compared with a decade ago.
Digital Space: Addiction and Distrust
Lebanon ranks among the Arab countries with the highest level of digital engagement, according to the AOI. Eighty-nine percent of respondents report daily internet use, and 44% identify the internet as their primary source of political news. Despite this extensive use, Lebanese citizens display pronounced digital scepticism: 65% do not trust information circulated on social media, while 41% also believe their online activities are subject to surveillance, attributing responsibility to corporate platform owners (43%) and governments (35%).
The findings of the Arab Opinion Index 2024-2025 confront Lebanese officials and decision-makers with stark and undeniable realities: Lebanon is experiencing a structural crisis of trust, a strained economy, and chronic security concerns. Yet, it simultaneously retains a society deeply committed to democracy as a value and fundamentally aligned with the causes of its Arab surroundings, foremost among them the Palestinian cause.
