For the first time in over four decades, on 31 July, just hours after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was reportedly killed in an Israeli operation in Tehran, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a significant admission: the US had neither been involved nor aware of the operation beforehand. This statement immediately raised serious concerns about the shifting dynamics not only between Israel and the US, a particularly acute problem given the heat of US presidential politics, but also sparked further debates over Washington’s influence in the Middle East. When considering the trajectory of US hard and soft power’s apparent decline, evident through withdrawals of military presences in the once occupied territories of Iraq and Afghanistan, and a rise in the influence of regional powers such as Iran, and extra-regional powers such as China, the arguments of decline gain traction. China’s rise in multi-dimensional influence in the Middle East is compelling. From instigating rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran after decades of outright hostility, through to the recent China-Arab strategic partnerships, there is no doubt that China – which is trusted and respected in the region – appears to be filling a regional vacuum, while quenching its insatiable appetite for oil imports.
This is occurring in the context of a rise in regional conflicts in which the major powers openly disregard international norms, contributing to a global atmosphere of lawlessness (following the example set by the illegal US occupation of Iraq). Russia exploited this precedent in its war with Ukraine, and Israel has similarly leveraged the same with US approval and arms in Gaza. In such a context, the rule-based Liberal International Order (LIO) is in tragic decline, with the US bearing responsibility for undermining the very principles it once championed. Coupled with Israel’s growing willingness to act independently, even on sensitive matters like Iran, without consulting Washington, this has prompted questions about the political, economic, and security ramifications of such autonomy, particularly how it affects US intelligence and its standing as a key diplomatic player, and the dwindling authority of the LIO. As Israel navigates its complex rivalry with Iran, these independent actions suggest that regional actors might increasingly bypass US or international legal oversight, further destabilizing the geopolitical landscape.
The other compelling argument which is yet to gain as much traction is whether the US – in a critical election year - is simply recalibrating its role, particularly through its unconditional support and partnership with Israel. This alternate lens argues the US is far from redundant in the region. In fact, its influence remains substantial, but in a more targeted and strategic form – primarily through its close alliance with Israel, to zero in on a more self-confident Iran that gained greatly due to the US war and occupation of Iraq.
US Role and the Rise of Iran and China in the Middle East
US influence and popularity had declined significantly since its intervention in Iraq, beyond a lack of WMDs, due to the division and destabilization of Iraq, which left it weak and exposed as witnessed through the rise of ISIS. Ironically, Iran – using the fight against ISIS to increase its influence and dominance - has turned Iraq into a vital financial lifeline by exploiting Iraq’s political instability and economic vulnerabilities. Iran’s strategy involves dominating Iraqi markets, facilitating oil smuggling, and controlling key sectors such as religious tourism. Since the US invasion in 2003, Tehran has entrenched its influence by backing political elites and militias, ensuring its economic and political dominance in Iraq. This dependence not only allows Iran to mitigate the effects of international sanctions while maintaining significant leverage over Iraqi affairs, but also enables it to fund its far-reaching networks of armed militias and proxies across the Middle East. This includes Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, along with activities and influence in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Kuwait, and in wider Asia, including Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Competing with Iranian diplomacy – which has been particularly well received by Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon – has proved challenging, with the US reduced to a series of targeted assassinations including the noteworthy hit on Qasem Soleimani in 2020, and the prior abrogation of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear agreement, which delayed but hardly ended Iran’s nuclear program. Neither move reduced nor slowed Tehran’s expansion. Meanwhile, the US has faced increased and regular attacks on its military bases, whilst facing demands for a decrease in troops in Iraq, pushed by pressure from Iran.
A new regional power dynamic was evident in May 2024, as an innovative phase in China-Arab relations commenced when Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain, Egyptian President Abdelfattah el-Sisi, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied, and UAE President Al Nahyan, for a state visit to China. Strengthening China-Arab relations were marked by three key documents: the “Beijing Declaration,” the “China-Arab States Cooperation Forum Execution Plan (2024-2026),” and a joint statement on Palestine. These agreements aim to enhance cooperation in aerospace, education, health, and address the Palestinian cause.
Meanwhile, despite significant US investments in the Middle East, regional states believe their strategic importance to the US has diminished since the Soviet Union’s fall. This documented perception stems from the shifting US focus to the Indo-Pacific to contain China. Key actions fuelling this view include what was seen as a betrayal that led to the 2011 ousting of Egypt’s once important ally, Mubarak, the Iraq troop withdrawal, inconsistent Syria policies, diminished dependence on Middle Eastern oil, and the betrayal of Washington’s Kurdish allies who were key to winning the fight against ISIS. Thus, when Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, or the leader of Hamas was killed earlier this year, the US Arab Allies’ response were muted, and certainly not celebratory, signifying not only sentiments, but shifting power-based loyalties.
The Biden administration’s approach to the Middle East has been arguably the most muddled in recent years and thus struggled significantly to gain traction. Its main goals – fostering cooperation with Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu whilst promoting a “rules-based” international order, and containing Iran – have faltered. The administration’s close alignment with Netanyahu, particularly since Israel’s aggressive actions against Gaza following the 7 October Hamas attacks that swiftly escalated into a war with Hezbollah, Iran’s armed Lebanese ally, and threatens an even wider regional war. Biden’s unwavering support for Netanyahu, despite the latter’s alignment with far-right Israeli factions, Israel’s well documented international law and human rights violations, and now synonymous identity with genocide through the ICJ case has further undermined US credibility and influence especially in the context of promoting stability and a ‘rules-based order’. Israel has openly defied US calls for a ceasefire, weakening Biden’s (and Kamala Harris’s) credibility and boosting the Republican candidate for the White House, Donald Trump.
The Tehran-Beijing Axis: US Decline or Recalibration of Regional and Global Strategy?
Despite a notable drawdown of US regional influence, reduced from large-scale occupations to targeted military and diplomatic engagements, it remains very much engaged and interested in the region, and sees it in a global context. This is particularly evident in the US military presence in key locations such as Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait and the aid and arms deals with key Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which underscore its enduring strategic interests. And the region is viewed by the US in the context of its most significant geopolitical foe, China.
Given such considerations, and deep US involvement with Israel in what is turning into a regional war, the US is simply recalibrating and sharpening its role. In this reconfigured context, the US’s indirect actions to wear down Iran and even enact regime change — via Israel through the above means as well as cyber-attacks and intelligence operations — may be part of a broader US-backed agenda to destabilize Iran’s regional power and, due to China’s reliance on Iranian oil, simultaneously weaken its main strategic rival.
In regard to Lebanon, a report by Politico noted that US officials had authorized Israel’s ground offensive. Politicoreported, “Senior White House figures privately told Israel that the US would support its decision to ramp up military pressure against Hezbollah – even as the Biden administration publicly urged the Israeli government in recent weeks to curtail its strikes. Presidential adviser Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East, told top Israeli officials in recent weeks that the US agreed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s broad strategy to shift Israel’s military focus to the north against Hezbollah. Behind the scenes, Hochstein, McGurk, and other top US national security officials are describing Israel’s Lebanon operations as a history-defining moment – one that will reshape the Middle East for the better for years to come.”
In its own regular studies on US global challenges and interests, the RAND Corporation noted how the US could win a war against China: “If China is vulnerable to critical shortages in a war with the United States, it could be … in oil supplies, of which it imports about 60 percent and has a declared strategic reserve of just ten days.”
It is clear that some key US ruling elite factions back a war to overthrow the Iranian regime. The London Financial Times warned that “the chances of an Israeli attempt to topple the Iranian regime cannot be fully discounted.” Netanyahu reportedly declared, “When Iran is finally free – and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different.” The gung-ho Trump faction fully backs war for regime change. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former Middle East adviser, in an extended commentary on X stated this most aggressively: “Iran is now fully exposed … Failing to take full advantage of this opportunity to neutralize the threat is irresponsible.”
The likely distinction in US policy following the November 2024 presidential election turns on tactics rather than principled differences between Trump ad Harris. Both candidates support military and other attacks and pressure on Iran in general, on its regional allies, and its oil sales and nuclear programme. The Trump camp has been the more rhetorically aggressive – demanding more assassinations, sanctions on Iranian oil sales – the top destination of which is China – and even greater support to Israel.
Despite some voices of concern among US ruling factions about the spiral to regional war, they remain united behind Israel – which means support for ultimate war with Iran. Democrats and Republicans differ only on tactics because toppling the Tehran regime – important in itself – is critical to the US’ strategic confrontation with its principal foe, China. Controlling the resource-rich Middle East and toppling Tehran would significantly increase US leverage and power in a war with China.
As global tensions between the great powers mount, it is becoming clearer that international law and rules-based order are secondary to the war for position – made crystal clear after one year of Israel’s illegal and genocidal war in Gaza, as well as lawless attacks on Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran. Talk of free trade, democracy, and the rule of law simply do not apply when it comes to the US holding on to its positions against rivals.
