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Studies 30 October, 2011

Sudanese Public Opinion after Secession

Keyword

Introduction

acrobat Icon The referendum on the secession of South Sudan was conducted with the exclusion of the Sudanese in the North and as such the people of the South thus expressed their opinion and decided on secession, while the opinions of those of the North were rendered absent. To fill this knowledge gap about public opinion in the North after the referendum, this paper offers an analysis of the data from a field study on Sudanese public opinion that was conducted between February 8 - and February 26, 2011 in all the states of Sudan, and in which 1,200 face-to-face interviews were carried out to explore the reality and the trends of public opinion in the post-secession period. This paper attempts to identify the reasons behind support for, or opposition to, secession and its implications for the future of both North and South Sudan.

The South Sudanese vote in favor of secession from the North raised new problematic questions about the identity of Sudan in a geographic, economic, social and human context that was imposed on the state rather than being a natural product of its evolution. Perhaps the most important of these questions is the one related to the unity and Arab identity of Sudan, and whether there is a need to reconsider and/or redefine its identity it in light of the failure of the experience of a unified Sudan. Questions abound as to the effectiveness of the policies pursued by successive Sudanese governments in the field of social integration (or so-called "nation-building"), policies which, according to the results of the referendum held in January 2011, led 99 percent of South Sudanese to opt for secession. While the referendum made the preferences of South Sudanese available for all to see, there was no way of gauging the thoughts and opinions of the North Sudanese regarding the secession of the South. Who bears responsibility for the secession from the viewpoint of Sudanese public opinion? How does Sudanese public opinion see the future of relations between North and South in the period after secession? These questions need answers in order to explore the shape of Sudan after secession so that we can determine the key issues surrounding the future of the relations between the North and the South.