On 9 July 2024, the ACRPS Iranian Studies Unit hosted a panel titled “The 2024 Presidential Election in Iran”. The panel included Abas Aslani, journalist and Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Iran; Mehran Kamrava, Director of the Iranian Studies Unit at the ACRPS and Professor of Government at Georgetown University Qatar; and Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas, Assistant Professor in Global Studies at the University of Tehran and a Senior Research Fellow and Director of the China-MENA project at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Iran. The event was moderated by Negar Mortazavi, journalist, editor and host of the Iran Podcast, a Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy, and a Nonresident Scholar at the Middle East Policy Council.

Yazdanshenas began by noting that Masoud Pezeshkian’s victory in the presidential election was unexpected. She highlighted that the second round’s voter turnout was about 50 percent, which was an increase of 10 percent over the first round’s roughly 40 percent turnout. Pezeshkian garnered 16 million votes, compared to 13 million for Jalili. Some of the conservative backers who had voted for Raisi in the past, according to Yazdanshenas, decided not to participate in this round of the election. She contended that the low turnout was indicative of the widening gap between the government and society, which was brought on by various economic challenges and the disparity between societal demands and the government’s concessions. In addition, Yazdanshenas stated that “recent experiences have convened some segment of the society that they can utilize the election as an opportunity to address their basic needs”. 

Discussing the issue of sanctions and US-Iran relations, Yazdanshenas pointed out that during the pre-election debate, the president-elect made it clear that tensions with the West, and the US in particular, must be resolved through direct negotiations to lift and alleviate the sanctions. The support of Hassan Rouhani’s foreign policy team, led by Mohammad Javad Zarif, suggests that the next administration is eager to engage in talks with the West, particularly with regard to Iran’s nuclear program.

However, Yazdanshenas asserted that the Supreme Leader defines the political system’s general policies, which cover important foreign policy matters. According to her, “this decision will be influenced by a variety of factors including regional developments, internal demands, different advice from trusted officials to the Leader, and Khamenei’s confidence in the negotiating team of Pezeshkian”. The success of the nuclear talks will depend on the makeup of the foreign ministry and the negotiating team, whose efficacy will depend on their capacity to persuade other foreign policy stakeholders including the Supreme National Security Council and the IRGC. Yazdanshenas claimed that Iran seeks to de-escalate amid regional instability.

Aslani stated that Pezeshkian himself did not expect to be qualified by the Guardian Council to run in the race. He quickly managed to garner support from a significant number of reformist and moderate officials who endorsed him. Aslani claimed that usually when there is a low turnout, a conservative candidate is expected to win the election; nevertheless, the reformist Pezeshkian led the first round and was elected president in the second round. Aslani argued that this is a new norm in Iranian domestic politics and electoral behaviour, highlighting that even the conservatives are losing their loyal base.

Aslani then argued that Pezeshkian has been critical of the domestic and foreign policies of the establishment, and that we should keep in mind that he has a moderate outlook. Aslani believed that Pezeshkian will attempt to establish and seek a balance between reform and tradition, which will shape his policies, recognizing the restrictions imposed by the country’s existing political structure. Concurring with Yazdanshenas, Aslani said that the scope of a president’s authority in the country remains a contentious issue, and while the position is important, the president is not the only person who makes foreign policy decisions. The country has a framework and an infrastructure in place that includes diverse actors shaping and formulating policies.

Aslani affirmed that “Pezeshkian’s policies will be based on pragmatism, and he has tried to stress the interconnectedness between domestic economic difficulties and the country’s foreign policy which is why he has been arguing for improving relations with the Western countries as well as to work with the East”. Therefore, Aslani described Pezeshkian as a “cautious reformer,” which he believed indicates that we may see incremental shifts rather than radical changes in foreign policy and domestic issues. Concerning the president-elect’s cabinet, Aslani explained that he has reached out to the different factions and will include figures from the conservative camp.

Regarding Iran’s foreign policy under Pezeshkian, Kamrava anticipated no fundamental changes in Tehran’s regional policy: Pezeshkian and those in charge of foreign policy around him, including former foreign minister Zarif, have already said that Iran will pursue the “good neighbourly” policy that President Raisi implemented. Nor will the Look East policy be fundamentally altered as it is to the country’s advantage to be part of the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The president-elect has stated that he intends to change Iran’s relationship, or lack thereof, with the European Union and even the United States. Kamrava also agreed with other panellists and added that “it is important to keep in mind that whether or not Iran wants to negotiate, it does not mean the Americans want to negotiate with Iran”.

Kamrava then addressed the question of Khamenei’s succession, arguing that Pezeshkian’s presidency will be critical in determining how Iran and the government will manage the succession. He highlighted that the Assembly of Experts is constitutionally required to have a committee continually looking for appropriate candidates to replace the current Leader. Kamrava maintained that “this is a government that is excellent at crisis management and has managed to organize elections in a short period of time, and that is what we will see with the succession of the office of the Supreme Leader”. Lastly, adding to the discussion about economic challenges and remedies, Kamrava mentioned that there is a lot of rent-seeking activity in the Iranian political system, and if the new president is able to curb at least some of it, the government will be able to have the budget to manage its expenditure to meet some of the promises he made to the Iranian people.