On Monday, 26 February 2024, the ACRPS Strategic Studies Unit in Doha hosted Rex Brynen, on Zoom, to present a lecture titled “The Future of Gaza?” Brynen, Professor of Political Science at McGill University in Montreal, was introduced by ACRPS researcher, Aicha El Basri.

Brynen began his lecture by pointing out that the genocidal Israeli war in the Gaza Strip has already claimed the lives of tens of thousands of Palestinians, causing forced displacement, a humanitarian catastrophe, and damage to infrastructure. Many areas have become uninhabitable and the political calculations of the Palestinian struggle for self-determination have changed forever. Brynen outlined possible future scenarios, warning of the similarities between the future of Gaza and other regions that had undergone similar conflicts, such as Lebanon after the 1982 war, Somalia, and northern Syria. Brynen stressed the urgent need for international humanitarian aid to alleviate the suffering of the residents of the Gaza Strip and prevent further destruction, stressing the importance of objective assessment in dealing with complex emergency situations, and calling for concerted efforts to deliver aid and peace initiatives.

Brynen believes that international actors play a secondary role in influencing the Israeli government in its war on Gaza, as the US administration has sought to reduce the pace of the Israeli military campaign instead of trying to stop it completely. This has led to the emergence of criticism and division within certain circles in the Democratic Party and in public opinion. Currently, US efforts are primarily focused on discouraging the large-scale attack that Israel is launching on the city of Rafah, and ensuring a ceasefire agreement accompanied by the release of Israeli prisoners. Brynen believes that such an agreement would only lead to a temporary decrease in violence, not an end to the conflict in Gaza.

Brynen pointed to the political challenges facing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, specifically the decline in his popularity as the spectre of electoral accountability looms. On the other hand, he noted an increase in the popularity of Hamas in the West Bank, which suggests a shift in political dynamics that may hinder prospects for long-term solutions. Reflecting on possible steps forward, Brynen advocated for international legal mechanisms, such as the International Criminal Court, and recognition of a Palestinian state by major players such as the United States and the United Kingdom.

Concluding the lecture, Brynen emphasized the obstacles to a solution in Gaza given the collapse of the proposed paths towards a solution, in addition to the challenges facing the delivery of humanitarian aid and reconstruction. The broader repercussions of the crisis include its impact on the Palestinians in Lebanon and Syria, the instability facing UNRWA due to the suspension of funding. Despite an overarching sense of ambiguity and unpredictability, Brynen expects that the involved parties will deal with Hamas regarding matters related to the ceasefire and the release of prisoners, but the international community will be unlikely to deal with Hamas in the long term. He believes that the International Court of Justice's decision could lead to important results, as well as the possible recognition of a Palestinian state by the United States and the United Kingdom.

While a United Nations Security Council resolution may be issued later this year launching a new trajectory, there is a need for a new generation of Palestinian leadership that is able to confront the challenges ahead. This is especially salient considering urgent Israeli desires to secure themselves against a recurrence of the 7 October attacks and impose a strict regime to control the population of the Gaza Strip, not to mention the imminent reconstruction challenges.