The ACRPS Iranian Studies Unit hosted Sadegh Zibakalam, one of contemporary Iran’s most renowned public intellectuals and a retired Professor of Political Science at the University of Tehran, on 20 January 2025. The speaker gave a lecture titled “The Trump Presidency and the 46 Years of Hostility Between Iran and the US”, marking the inauguration of Donald Trump that same day as the 47th President of the United States.

Zibakalam set the tone of his talk by emphasizing that the real issue is not Trump or the United States' stance toward Iran, but rather the deep dissatisfaction and disdain of the Iranian people, particularly the younger generation, toward the Islamic Republic itself. He noted that “more than being worried about Trump and what Trump is going to do with Iran, I am worried about the situation in Iran – the sharp contradiction, the sharp conflict between the younger generation of Iranians and their hatred of literally anything which is tied to the Islamic Republic”. The talk mainly explored the transformation of the public sentiment in Iran and the political dynamics over the decades. Some of these evolutions include the changes in ideology, leadership, and generational attitudes. During the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Zibakalam explained, there was an overwhelming support from Iranians towards the Palestinian cause, which was seen as a unifying stance across all parts of society. However, Zibakalam claimed that this sentiment has shifted dramatically in recent years, specifically since October 2023. Zibakalam further argued that today the younger Iranian generation, particularly the ones born after the 1979 Revolution, do not necessarily support the Palestinian cause and express animosity towards groups like Hezbollah, viewing them as extensions of the Islamic Republic’s agenda. “I can tell you why they hate Hassan Nasrallah, why they hate Hamas […] simply because the Islamic Republic supports them,” Zibakalam claimed.

The Iranian society is more fragmented than ever and this younger generation’s dissatisfaction with the government has led to a steep generational divide, the speaker noted. Zibakalam argued that this schism is further deepened by the growing power of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which he said controls major aspects of Iran’s politics, economy, and foreign policy. “The Revolutionary Guard is literally running the Islamic Republic,” he said, adding that “they decide on Iran’s foreign policy, they decide on Iran’s policy towards the Middle East, towards Israel, and, most importantly, they run something like 30 to 50% of the Iranian entire economy.”

The lecture also discussed the challenges targeting Iran’s current leadership. Zibakalam weighed in on the scepticism around the newly elected president Masoud Pezeshkian and whether he can address some of the crises plaguing the country. He further maintained that there are doubts regarding the future leadership transition as the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ages. The IRGC, Zibakalam said, is unlikely to give up its control, even under a new supreme leadership. The hatred and societal fragmentation among Iranians, particularly within the younger generation, pose the greatest threat to the future of the Islamic Republic, according to Zibakalam.