The recent ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel, with provisions such as Israel’s gradual withdrawal from Gaza, the release of Palestinian prisoners, and the reopening of the Rafah crossing, marks a pivotal moment in one of the world’s most complex conflicts. The disclosed terms of the agreement, particularly the mechanisms for Israeli oversight of the Rafah and Netzarim crossings, signal Israel’s gradual retreat in response to mounting regional and international pressures. At first glance, the agreement may appear to represent diplomatic progress. However, the reality of the Middle East emerging from the deal reveals a region still ensnared in complex conflicts and rapid geopolitical shifts.
Contrary to prevailing narratives, one striking aspect of the current Middle Eastern landscape is that the so-called Resistance Axis finds itself in a markedly different position than it did prior to Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on 7 October 2023. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, once considered a cornerstone of this axis, has significantly challenged the regional standing of the “resistance movement.”
Hamas, also once a critical arm of the Resistance Axis, is similarly facing a precarious position. While the group managed to surprise Israel with Al-Aqsa Flood, the cost has been the destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure and an escalating humanitarian crisis. Despite achieving a symbolic victory early on, Hamas’s military and political capabilities have been significantly weakened under the extensive pressures exerted by Israel and the international community.
Similarly, Hezbollah in Lebanon, despite its pre-Al-Aqsa Flood military and political clout, now finds its capacity to advance the Resistance Axis’s objectives increasingly constrained. The prevailing political structures in Lebanon operate with considerable independence from Hezbollah’s influence. While the group still maintains a significant presence in the Lebanese parliament and government, the broader political environment in Lebanon has become more fragmented and challenging for Hezbollah. The ongoing economic crisis, coupled with widespread political disillusionment, has led to calls for reform, which limits Hezbollah’s ability to operate without resistance.
