US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held two closed-door meetings on 7 and 8 July, during which they discussed a range of issues relating to the Middle East, most notably efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip. The discussions came amid signs of significant progress toward a potential truce agreement between Israel and Palestinian resistance group Hamas. Following the first meeting between Trump and Netanyahu, an Israeli delegation headed to Doha, where they held an initial round of indirect negotiations with Hamas, mediated by Qatar and Egypt. President Trump has in recent days repeatedly expressed his desire to end the war in the Gaza Strip and secure the release of all the Israeli hostages held there, a goal White House spokeswoman, Caroline Levitt, has described as “the utmost priority for the president right now in the Middle East.”[1]
Context of the Meetings
Washington was hoping that Trump’s meetings with Netanyahu will represent a turning point not just for the Gaza Strip but for the Middle East more generally, especially as they come in the wake of joint US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran in June.[2] However, clear differences have emerged between the allies over their priorities moving forward. Trump is prioritizing ending the war in Gaza,[3] while Netanyahu is seeking US approval to carry out new pre-emptive strikes against Iran should evidence emerge that Tehran is reviving its nuclear programme.[4] While Trump is seeking to consolidate his legacy as a president who successfully brokered a rapprochement between Israel and a string of Arab states, as well as curbing Iran’s influence in the region, Netanyahu is strenuously seeking to avoid any retreat on his own priorities. As regional dynamics shift and the region enters a phase of repositioning, the potential for a convergence of interests between the two allies appears to allow for a degree of tactical flexibility. Netanyahu views the outcome of the bombing campaign against Iran as an opportunity to strengthen his personal political standing, while Trump is seeking to claim credit for this shift.[5]
The resumption of negotiations does not necessarily indicate a shift in Israel’s position. Rather, it points to a shift in Netanyahu’s own calculations.[6] Having previously rejected any talks, in order to deny Hamas the opportunity to claim victory on the grounds of having survived, he now believes that his “military achievements” against Iran and its allies provide him with a credible narrative which denies that Hamas has achieved victory in Israel’s 21-month war on Gaza. This in turn provides the Israeli premier with a platform for an election campaign, meaning he no longer fears calling early polls; he would prefer to contest them from his current position, in the wake of the war with Iran, rather than postponing them.
Furthermore, Netanyahu appears to be pushing for a strategic trade-off, which would include a halt to the war in Gaza in exchange for the complete elimination of the Iranian nuclear programme. Israel sees that programme as an existential threat, one that required direct US intervention in the form of air strikes on nuclear facilities – although the American campaign did not come without a price tag in terms of political costs or implicit understandings.[7] That said, Netanyahu now expects Washington to turn a blind eye to Israel’s settlement expansion in the West Bank and unprecedented restrictions on the lives of Palestinians there, as a prelude to Israel’s partial annexation of the territory.
Trump said the day before his meeting with Netanyahu that Washington was “working on a lot of things” with Israel, including “probably a permanent deal with Iran.”[8] Talks between Washington and Tehran are expected to resume soon, although Trump has emphasized that any agreement would not allow Iran to enrich uranium. This may indicate that an attempt is underway to curb the nuclear programme within the framework of a broader regional deal, including a ceasefire in Gaza and the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries.
Israeli and American Calculations
Despite the growing overlap in the Trump and Netanyahu’s respective strategic calculations, especially after the US administration’s direct intervention in Israel’s war against Iran, they have divergent priorities.
1. Trump’s Calculations
Trump sees ending the war in Gaza as a key step toward achieving his broader regional goals, first and foremost what he sees as the “top prize”: normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, within the framework of the Abraham Accords brokered by his first administration. Washington believes this would open the door to normalization with other Arab and Islamic countries.[9] However, Riyadh continues to emphasize that normalization cannot take place as long as the war in Gaza continues, meaning a ceasefire agreement is the key to achieving Trump’s ambitions.
Trump is also looking to achieve a breakthrough in Israel’s relationship with Syria, through some form of normalization – even partial – that would end more than seven decades of mutual hostility. In this context, since meeting Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh in May, he has lifted a number of sanctions on Syria. It was particularly noteworthy that just hours before Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu on 7 July, Washington announced the removal of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), headed by al-Sharaa, from its list of terrorist organizations. Israeli media outlets have reported that Netanyahu and al-Sharaa may meet on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September, in preparation for the signing of a security agreement brokered by Trump.[10] The US is reportedly working to host the meeting at the White House, before the General Assembly.
2. Netanyahu’s Calculations
Netanyahu finds himself in a delicate position, forced to balance pressure from his American ally against pressure from the far-right parties within his ruling coalition, which view any ceasefire agreement in Gaza as tantamount to surrendering to Hamas.[11] These factions have repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the government, which could bring about the collapse of Netanyahu’s government. On the other hand, strong American support, particularly Washington’s participation in bombing Iran’s fortified nuclear facilities, makes it difficult for Netanyahu to reject Trump’s demands. The American president believes that his support for Israel in confronting Iran, as well as his pressure on the Israeli courts over pending corruption cases against Netanyahu, gives him the right to influence the course of Israeli political decision-making.[12]
Despite these opposing pressures, Netanyahu appears to be in an increasingly strong position domestically, especially since the US-Israeli aggression against Iran and the weakening of its axis in the region. The Israeli premier views any potential ceasefire agreement in Gaza as an opportunity to expand the Abraham Accords to include key countries, including Saudi Arabia.[13] During his meeting with Trump, he said: “I think we can work out a peace between us and the entire Middle East with President Trump’s leadership.” He also argued that Syria had “a lot to gain” by pursuing the path of normalization.[14] This was despite the fact that his government escalated its attacks inside Syria in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime at the end of 2024, as well expanding the amount of Syrian territory it occupies. The principle of achieving peace with the Arabs through force is now at the centre of Netanyahu’s regional policy. Thus, such a peace could be seen as reward to Israel for its genocide and crimes against humanity in Palestine, in addition to its repeated attacks on Syria and Lebanon.
Palestinian resistance factions are continuing to carry out high-profile operations, such as an operation by the Qassam Brigades on 7 July in Beit Hanoun, which killed five Israeli soldiers and wounded 14 others. However, Netanyahu believes that reaching a ceasefire in Gaza (providing his basic conditions are met, most notably the dismantling of the military and administrative capabilities of Hamas) could achieve long-term strategic gains for Israel, without being seen domestically as relinquishing the right wing’s demand for a “total victory.”
Calculations Around the Gaza Ceasefire Talks
In parallel with Netanyahu’s meetings in Washington, Israel and Hamas began a new round of indirect negotiations in Doha in a renewed attempt to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, based on a proposal presented by US envoy Steve Witkoff. The general outlines of the proposal stipulate a 60-day truce, during which Hamas would release 10 living Israeli hostages and hand over the bodies of 18 others. In exchange, Israeli occupation forces would withdraw to a buffer zone on the border between Gaza, Israel, and Egypt, as well as allowing the entry of huge quantities of humanitarian aid into the Strip. A number of Palestinian prisoners would also be released, whose number has yet to be agreed upon. The agreement would not guarantee a permanent cessation of hostilities, although the proposal stipulates the launch of negotiations aimed at reaching a more permanent agreement within the 60-day period.[15]
The first meeting between Trump and Netanyahu was devoted entirely to the issue of Gaza, but their discussion expanded to include other issues, most notably Iran and the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries. This necessitated a second, unannounced 90-minute meeting the following day.[16] American media reported that Trump had pressured Netanyahu during the second meeting, urging him to show flexibility to achieve a ceasefire agreement. Trump has clearly shown a desire make the negotiations a success, reflecting his belief that the continuation of what he calls the “tragic situation” in Gaza is preventing him from implementing his broader regional agenda. The Doha negotiations are reportedly making significant progress, which prompted Trump to ask Netanyahu to return to the White House. This coincided with the arrival of a Qatari delegation, which met with senior Trump administration officials just hours before the president’s second meeting with Netanyahu.[17]
The negotiations between Israel and Hamas are currently stuck over three main points:[18]
- The withdrawal of Israeli forces to the ceasefire lines in place before the collapse of the previous truce in March.
- The tasking of UN and international organizations with delivering aid to Gaza, instead of the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, as demanded by Israel.
- The demand for an American guarantee that Israel will not resume its bombardment unilaterally once the 60-day truce has expired.
The Trump administration is seeking a compromise on the first point – although Israel rejects this, as well as refusing to withdraw from the border with Egypt, specifically the nine-mile Salah al-Din (Philadelphi) Corridor. Israel reportedly intends to connect the latter to a new zone within Gaza known as the Morag Corridor, which extends for three miles through the south of the Strip, between Rafah and Khan Yunis,[19] in a strategic area that Israel captured in its March 2025 offensive.
As concerns aid distribution, an understanding appears to be taking shape that would see the UN or international organizations affiliated neither with Israel nor Hamas take over the task of delivering aid to areas from which Israeli forces withdraw.[20] Israel insists on delivering aid via at least two points within the area it occupies in the southern Gaza Strip. Palestinian and international organizations have accused the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation of exploiting aid distribution to humiliate and kill Palestinians. American mercenaries and Israeli soldiers have shot dead hundreds of Gazans as they queued at food aid distribution points.
The demand for guarantees was addressed in a letter that Witkoff sent to Hamas via mediators. The letter included a confirmation by Trump that he was committed to extending the ceasefire if negotiations to end the war continued beyond the 60-day period.[21] This implies that there is no genuine guarantee. Israel could halt the negotiations at any time, even if there is some hope of a growing regional and international consensus around imposing a ceasefire. Israel appears not to object to such a scenario, providing it can impose its own conditions regarding the future of Gaza, its army can maintain its positions, and it retains the ability to launch strikes whenever it suspects any Hamas activity.
Chances of a Settlement
Despite the optimism expressed by US officials regarding the possibility of reaching a ceasefire deal on Gaza in the coming days, even were a 60-day truce to be put in place, this would not necessarily put an end to Israel’s aggression against the Strip. Several points of contention could still conspire to prevent a permanent settlement, primarily the following:
- The plan for the “day after” in Gaza: Israel continues to insist that Hamas play no role whatsoever in the future governance of Gaza. It has proposed that the Arab states assume responsibility for administering the Strip and providing security, under Israeli supervision, in cooperation with Palestinian figures affiliated neither with Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority. Despite the movement’s stated willingness to relinquish its role in governance, it rejects the idea of foreign administration, and has called for the formation of an independent Palestinian body of technocrats, in coordination with the PA and Egypt. Washington and Tel Aviv say they are seeking to avoid replicating the Hezbollah model in Lebanon, in which “Hamas stays as an armed militia even if only underground, while a civilian government runs the enclave.”[22]
- The extent of Israel’s withdrawal: The Palestinian resistance insists on a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, while Israel insists it will hold onto large areas within the territory, raising fears of a partial occupation enshrined within the post-war arrangements.
- Plans for reconstruction and expulsion: Trump and Netanyahu are promoting a plan for the mass displacement of Gaza’s residents, ignoring growing international condemnation, including from their allies and from UN bodies. Trump has said that the reconstruction of Gaza would require the displacement of its population, and has pledged to transform the Strip into the “Riviera of the Middle East,” under American supervision. Although he later retracted these statements, he re-introduced the idea during his recent meetings with Netanyahu. Meanwhile, Israeli Defence Minister Yisrael Katz has revealed plans to establish a “humanitarian city,” a detention camp built on the ruins of Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians would be gathered under tight movement restrictions and harsh security measures,[23] in preparation for their expulsion or forced emigration.
- The expulsion of Hamas and dismantlement of its military wing: Since Israel demanded the withdrawal of the movement’s entire personnel from Gaza, it appears to have partially backed down from this demand, accepting the symbolic expulsion of a limited number of the movement’s military leaders and senior officials. It does however insist on breaking up the movement’s military wing. Some reports suggest that Israel may be considering granting amnesty to hundreds of fighters, provided they surrender their weapons.[24]
[1] Luke Broadwater & Maggie Haberman, “Trump and Netanyahu Meet Amid Gaza Cease-Fire Negotiations,”
The New York Times, 7/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPQf.
[2] “White House Dinner with Netanyahu,”
Rev, 7/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPjG.
[3] Broadwater & Haberman.
[4] Barak Ravid, “Israeli Officials Think Trump Could Give Them Green Light to Attack Iran again,”
Axios, 7/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GP4l.
[5] Kevin Liptak, “Netanyahu Plays into Trump’s Hopes for Middle East Peace — and Nominates Him for a Nobel Prize,”
CNN, 7/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPsU.
[6] Herb Keinon, “Gaza for Fordow: Did Netanyahu Master the Art of the Strategic Deal? – Analysis,”
The Jerusalem Post, 7/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPtw.
[7] Herb Keinon, “Gaza for Fordow: Did Netanyahu Master the Art of the Strategic Deal? – Analysis,”
The Jerusalem Post, 7/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPtw.
[8] “Trump Says He’ll Talk to Netanyahu about ‘Permanent Deal with Iran’,”
Times of Israel, 7/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPay.
[9] Liptak.
[10] “Netanyahu, Sharaa, Plan to Meet in Washington in September – Report,”
The Jerusalem Post, 8/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPvy.
[11] Bel Trew, “A Glimmer of Hope in Gaza? Inside the Fragile Ceasefire Push as Trump Hosts Netanyahu,”
The Independent, 6/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPFH.
[12] Aamer Madhani, Tia Goldenberg & Michelle L. Price, “Trump and Netanyahu Take a Victory Lap to Mark Strikes on Iran Nuclear Facilities,”
The Associated Press, 8/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPGY.
[13] Trew.
[14] “Trump hosts Netanyahu: A chance to end the Gaza war, meeting with Iran within days,”
Al-Araby al-Jadeed, 8/7/2025, accessed 10/7/2025 (in Arabic), at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPo9.
[15] “Details Emerge on Gaza Ceasefire Proposal as Netanyahu Heads to White House,”
Associated Press, 6/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPyt .
[16] Barak Ravid, “Trump and Netanyahu Meet to Discuss Gaza Deal Push,”
Axios, 8/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPPa.
[17] Andrea Shalal & Patricia Zengerle, “Trump, Netanyahu Meet a Second Time as Gaps Said to Narrow in Gaza Ceasefire Talks,”
Reuters, 8/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPec.
[18] Ravid, “Trump and Netanyahu Meet.”
[19] Trew.
[20] Ravid, “Trump and Netanyahu Meet.”
[21] Ibid.
[22] Barak Ravid, “Trump Hopes to Align with Netanyahu on Gaza War Endgame during Visit,”
Axios, 6/7/2025, accessed on 10/7/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GPuR.
[23] Nayif Zidane, “Katz unveils initial details of Israel’s steps to gather all of Gaza’s residents in Rafah,”
Al-Araby al-Jadeed, 7/7/2025, accessed 10/7/2025 (in Arabic), at:
https://acr.ps/1L9GQ2B.
[24] Ravid, “Trump Hopes to Align with Netanyahu.”
