Introduction
Taiwan lies between China’s eastern seaboard and the Pacific Ocean, within a chain of islands commonly referred to as the First Island Chain, which extends from Japan in the north through Taiwan to the Philippines in the south. Taiwan occupies a strategically significant position at the junction of the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. It is also embedded within a broader US-led maritime security architecture in the Western Pacific, consisting of a network of alliances and military installations stretching from Japan and South Korea to Guam and Australia. In this context, Taiwan represents a structural constraint on China’s maritime access to the Pacific Ocean in the event of a military confrontation with the United States. From the perspective of US strategy, the island functions as a forward position that supports American presence in the region and contributes to shaping China’s operational environment in its adjacent seas. Accordingly, the Taiwan issue remains a central point of tension closely tied to broader Sino-American competition over the international order.
Examining tensions surrounding Taiwan has become ever more salient amid accelerating geopolitical developments in the region. In March 2025, renewed attention was directed to China’s Anti-Secession Law on the twentieth anniversary of its enactment. Promulgated two decades earlier, the law authorizes the use of force to prevent Taiwan’s formal declaration of independence. Its relevance has intensified in the context of sustained Chinese military activity, including large-scale exercises conducted over the past three years that have rehearsed scenarios involving a comprehensive blockade of the island, as well as drills held off Taiwan’s southwestern coast in February 2025.[1] These activities were interpreted by authorities in Taipei as a significant escalation and a potential threat to regional stability.
In this context, China has continued to expand its military capabilities, including a 7.2 percent increase in its defence budget for 2025,[2] reflecting a sustained commitment to advancing its strategic objectives, particularly with respect to Taiwan. Despite this apparent level of preparation, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the timing and modalities of any potential use of force, especially in light of divergent assessments of China’s capacity to undertake a large-scale military operation. Taiwanese authorities stated in 2021 that China might acquire the requisite capabilities for an invasion by 2025, whereas US assessments have estimated that such a possibility could occur by 2027, coinciding with the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the convening of the twenty-first National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, a moment at which President Xi Jinping could signal substantive progress on the Taiwan question.[3]
Although the US has formally adhered to a policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan, while providing unofficial political and military support, its posture under President Donald Trump has introduced additional uncertainty. When asked about the prospect of China using force to take control of Taiwan, Trump declined to comment directly, emphasizing instead the importance of maintaining a positive economic and political relationship with Beijing.[4] Such statements have contributed to the ongoing debate regarding the likely contours of a US response and the extent of Washington’s commitment to Taiwan’s defence in the years ahead.
These developments call for a careful and multidimensional analytical approach to the Taiwan issue, which constitutes the central objective of this paper. The significance of a potential confrontation lies in its capacity to reshape key features of the contemporary international order. While recent years have witnessed a prominent example of geopolitical conflict in Ukraine, the Taiwan question presents a more complex and far-reaching challenge. This complexity derives from the US’ characterization of China as a primary global competitor, the dense interdependence of economic and military interests, and the centrality of the US to the crisis, given its deep strategic involvement in the security of the Pacific region. As a result, any escalation in the Taiwan conflict would not be limited to the immediate parties but would carry broader implications for the global balance of power.
This paper analyses the Taiwan crisis as a central arena of geopolitical rivalry between China and the US, through a systematic examination of its historical, political, military, and economic dimensions, as well as the factors shaping regional and international power relations. It begins by outlining the historical origins of the dispute between Taiwan and mainland China, tracing the emergence of two competing political authorities advancing distinct claims to legitimacy and sovereignty. The analysis then turns to Chinese policies aimed at isolating Taiwan, focusing on the use of economic and diplomatic instruments to restrict its international space and limit its external engagement. The paper subsequently examines Taiwan’s perspective and its strategies for managing and countering Chinese pressure, assessing its ability to maintain de facto independence amid mounting strategic constraints. These sections incorporate a comparative evaluation of the military capabilities of both sides, underscoring the asymmetry in their respective power positions. The analysis then shifts to US and broader Western involvement, exploring how Taiwan has come to occupy a central position in the geopolitical competition between Beijing and Washington, and assessing the implications of the US policy of strategic ambiguity for the trajectory of the crisis. The conclusion synthesizes the paper’s principal findings and outlines the most plausible future scenarios, while identifying the factors that have thus far limited the likelihood of a direct Chinese military intervention against Taiwan.
[1] Yimou Lee et al., “Taiwan Condemns China for ‘shooting’ Drills off Taiwanese Coast,”
Reuters, 26/2/2025, accessed on 14/4/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9zR7q
[2] Laurie Chen & Greg Torode, “China Maintains Defence Spending Increase at 7.2% amid Roiling Geopolitical Tensions,”
Reuters, 5/3/2025, accessed on 14/4/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9zQXB
[3] Gisela Grieger, “China’s Assertive Foreign Policy and Taiwan Unification Ambitions,” European Union, Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Services, 26/7/2023, accessed on 14/4/2025, at:
https://tinyurl.com/3v37x2vy
[4] Trevor Hunnicutt, “Trump Declines to Answer Question about China and Taiwan,”
Reuters, 27/2/2025, accessed on 14/4/2025, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9zRk5
