What Does the Fall of El-Fasher Mean for Sudan?

Why El-Fasher Fell

As such, the fall of the city was not an isolated event, but rather the outcome of several intertwined military, political, and strategic factors that had been set in motion in May 2024 and evolved in stages to reshape the balance of power in the war. These factors include the following:

Politically: The alliances forged by the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo –better known as Hemedti – played a significant role in shifting the balance of power, and directly contributed to the rapid fall of the El-Fasher. These alliances brought several local armed groups with tribal affiliations in Darfur into the fight on the side of the RSF, including the Justice and Equality Movement, the Suleiman Sandal faction, and the Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council, led by Al-Hadi Idris, along with units from Abdel Aziz al-Hilu’s faction of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (North), which is active in the Nuba Mountains of Kordofan. This alliance culminated in the declaration of an RSF-led parallel government in Nairobi in February 2025, headed by Hemedti, with al-Hilu as vice president,[5] Idris as governor of the Darfur region, and Sandal as minister of the interior.[6] This alliance provided the RSF with crucial logistical and intelligence support in the operational area around El-Fasher, contributing to its capture of the city in defiance of Arab, regional, and international resistance toward Hemedti’s “Government of Peace and Unity” and the alliance it represents.[7]
Militarily: El-Fasher was the target of more than 250 offensive operations over a year and a half of siege,[8] ranging from heavy artillery shelling and drone attacks to ground incursions, as the SAF sought to breach its defensive lines.[9] The RSF’s acquisition of modern air defence systems[10] allowed it to neutralize the Sudanese Air Force, especially after it shot down two of the latter’s aircraft in early 2025,[11] leading to the near-total cessation of air support for the besieged army troops. In contrast to the shortage of ammunition and manpower among those forces, the RSF was reinforced by an influx of hundreds of experienced foreign mercenaries. As the siege dragged on, morale collapsed among SAF forces defending the city, especially following the fall of Bara in North Kordofan,[12] which had represented a key staging point for the army in its bid to break the siege of El-Fasher. The loss of Bara therefore constituted a severe blow that reinforced the defenders’ sense of isolation and closed one of their most important resupply and support lines, deepening the siege and weakening their ability to mount a successful resistance.
Strategically: External support played a critical role in enabling the RSF to seize control of El-Fasher. Reports by the United Nations and credible press outlets indicate that the UAE has supplied them with advanced military equipment, including some of British origin, which was deployed in combat positions around the city. The UN Security Council revealed that this equipment included products made by the Emirati company Nimr and British companies such as Militec and Cummins Inc.[13] This gave the RSF access to armoured vehicles and precision guidance systems, giving it a tactical advantage at crucial stages of the battle. This support was not limited to ammunition and equipment, but also included a continuous flow of both military supplies, across the borders from Chad and Libya,[14] and mercenaries from neighbouring countries and beyond.[15] At least 300 Colombian mercenaries, whose deployment in Sudan has been documented since November 2024,[16] have played a crucial role in combat operations, as well as training the RSF in the use of advanced weapons, including drones and field artillery. They have also actively participated in the fighting around El-Fasher, according to video footage.[17] This technical and operational support has enhanced the effectiveness of the RSF, and helped to shift the military balance of power in its favour, especially given the declining capabilities of the armed forces to offset and respond to its losses.

The Implications of El-Fasher’s Fall

Given El-Fasher’s strategic location and proximity to several international borders, along with its large population, its fall could represent a turning point in the course of the war, reshaping the military and political balance of power – unless the government in Khartoum can contain the repercussions.

Military Implications

Complete control of the Darfur region, along with large parts of the Kordofan region, gives the RSF the upper hand on the ground and reshapes the military map of Sudan. This geographical expansion not only increases the operational area under their control; it also enhances their ability to manoeuvre and to conduct multi-pronged offensive operations, as well as exposing the western front of the SAF, especially with the disruption of the latter’s supply lines. Risks of further violence are also rising in the northern and western regions, and will continue to escalate if the militia succeeds in securing the vital export route linking Bara to Omdurman and seizing control of Umm Badr and Sowdari, which contain airfields, making them potential staging points for the launch of a new offensive against the capital.

Political Implications

Humanitarian Implications

Conclusion

The fall of El-Fasher represents a major turning point for the civil war in Sudan, which has seen major shifts on the ground over the course of the conflict. While the development strengthens the de facto rulers of Darfur in the short term, and deepens the political and military divisions that have riven Sudan since the RSF launched its coup against the army and the Sudanese state, it remains possible that the military will regain the initiative and retake the region. However, in addition to a reorganization of military affairs, this will require the development of a comprehensive vision that balances political, security, and humanitarian needs, along with the rebuilding of state institutions on solid foundations to enable the country to move beyond the war and achieving a sustainable peace that restores Sudan’s unity and stability. It also demands that world powers take a firm stance towards external actors supporting the RSF, whose interference threatens to spark a repetition of the humanitarian tragedy that ravaged Darfur nearly two decades ago – at the hands of the Janjaweed.