Why Did Israel Resume Its Genocidal War on Gaza?

The Freezing of Humanitarian Aid and Resumption of Genocide

Netanyahu refuses to halt his genocidal war in the Gaza Strip until he has achieved the stated and unstated goals of eradicating Hamas both militarily and politically, recovering the Israeli captives, and ethnically cleansing the Palestinians. He is doing this by making Gaza completely uninhabitable area through repeated massacres, a comprehensive blockade, deliberate starvation, and widespread destruction. He insists on conducting indirect negotiations with Hamas, even as the Gaza Strip crumbles.

Can Netanyahu Achieve His Goals?

The accomplishment of Israel’s war goals in Gaza are based on the following factors:

The Israeli government enjoys the Trump administration’s unconditional support in its pursuit of the goals of its war on Gaza, particularly regarding the displacement of Palestinians.[10] The Trump administration fully embraced the right-wing Israeli government's vision on this matter when, in early February 2025, it presented its plan to displace Palestinians from the Strip to Egypt, Jordan, and other countries.[11] This represents a dangerous shift in US policy on the Palestine question and the Arab region, that if not addressed, could lead to its complete “liquidation”. The Trump administration provides Israel with various forms of unconditional military, financial, and diplomatic support, enabling it to continue its massacres against Palestinian civilians. Netanyahu and his government believe that this administration exerts more pressure on Arab countries and other countries in the region than any previous US administration, through which it can contain and mitigate opposition to the genocide in Gaza.
Netanyahu stands on solid ground domestically. His government, based on an extreme right-wing coalition, has a majority of 68 out of 120 members in the Knesset. Despite occasional internal disputes within the coalition, particularly between the two fascist parties, Jewish Power, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, the coalition remains cohesive. These disagreements arise within the context of competition over extremism, to further their party’s position in the coalition and gain the support of the extreme religious right public, rather than as a threat to the coalition.[12] Netanyahu has furthermore been able to split the opposition and strengthen his governing coalition. On 29 September 2024, Gideon Sa’ar and his party returned to the governing coalition.[13] On 15 November 2024, Netanyahu dismissed Defence Minister Yoav Gallant after long disagreements, appointing Israel Katz in his place.[14] On 13 March, Likud and Sa’ar’s party signed an agreement, joining him with Likud.[15] Netanyahu subsequently strengthened his position within the party and the coalition, as well as his own role in making decisions pertaining to the war, especially since Katz has no military or security background, and is keen to avoid disagreements. In addition, Netanyahu and Katz pressured the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, Herzi Halevi, to submit his resignation, on 21 January 2025.[16] On 1 February 2025, they decided to appoint Eyal Zamir as Chief of Staff of the Israeli Army, starting in March. In doing so, Netanyahu got rid of Halevi, with whom he had clashed on several issues, such as judicial reform, responsibility for 7 October, the plan for the day after the war, and the issue of the Israeli prisoners. Zamir, who served as military secretary to Netanyahu in 2012-2015, as deputy chief of staff, and as director general of the Ministry of Security, maintains a good relationship with Netanyahu. And unlike Halevi, Zamir advocates for the occupation of the Gaza Strip, for which he has drawn up a comprehensive military plan fand established a directorate within the Ministry of Defence to expel the Palestinians.[17] Netanyahu, who is well aware of the depth of Israeli society’s rightward shift, has been able to restore the strength and popularity of Likud, because this party occupies the first place in all public opinion polls in Israel. According to these polls Netanyahu himself also ranks first place in the polls for choice of prime minister[18], ahead of opposition leaders, with the exception of Naftali Bennett, who stepped down from politics after the last Knesset elections, but seeks to participate in the next.
The normalization agreements of Arab countries with Israel have led to a change in the nature of the enemy Israel faces. The main enemy has shifted from states to non-state military actors. This, in addition to the technological developments that have transformed the nature of wars, has contributed to strengthening the Israeli army. More than three decades ago the decision was made to transform it into a small and “smart” army under the plan of the Chief of Staff and later Prime Minister, Ehud Barak. The focus turned to the development of the Air Force and artificial intelligence. All of this has led to the reduction of reserve forces in the Israeli army and increased reliance on the regular army. Following the reduction of these forces on the one hand, and the increase in Israel’s population on the other, only 6 percent of the population is registered in the reserve forces system, and less than 2 percent of the total population is called up for active duty.[19] These developments enabled Israel to fight long-term wars, contrary to when it was fighting very short wars; in the past its army relied on reserve forces, numbers the Israeli economy cannot do without for a long time.
Netanyahu and the Israeli military leadership believe that the ability of Gaza to resist is limited. Despite the bravery of the fighters of Hamas and other Palestinian organizations and the steadfastness of the Palestinian people in Gaza, he believes that Israel can achieve the goals of the war now he has appointed obedient and loyal officials, namely Katz and Zamir. He is further bolstered by Israel’s neutralization of Hezbollah and Iran, the Arab states’ reluctance to exert any real pressure on it to end the war, and the Trump administration's continued support for it. Netanyahu believes that Israel can achieve the goals of the war, whether through prisoner exchange deals with Hamas that allow the war to resume after, or without any deal, through the blockade and continuation of the war and massacres against the Palestinians as Israeli regular army gradually expands its occupation of areas in Gaza. He seeks to expel its inhabitants and cut the Strip into more than five areas that the Israeli army is currently besieging and continues to eat away bit by bit. Netanyahu’s insistence on occupying the Strip and achieving absolute victory is consistent with Israeli policy since Al-Aqsa flood towards both Lebanon and Syria and the other Arab countries. This policy, which takes advantage of the Trump administration’s absolute bias toward Israel and the weakness of the Arab states, seeks to impose an Israeli sphere of influence in the Arab Mashreq.[20]

Conclusion

Netanyahu will not be satisfied with the return of the Israeli prisoners with or without a deal, as he is determined to reoccupy the Gaza Strip, not only to eliminate Hamas, but also to create the necessary conditions to displace the Palestinians according to the Trump plan. Arab and Palestinian actors must step up to stop the war and rebuild Gaza, in a way that enables the Palestinians to resist plans to displace them.