Introduction
US President-elect Donald Trump can claim countless “firsts” to his name. He is the first president to return to office for a second term after having lost a previous election as an incumbent since 1892. The precedent was set by Grover Cleveland who served as President from 1885-1889 and 1893-1897. Now at 78, Trump is also the oldest candidate to be elected president, older than the incumbent President Joe Biden when he ran for the office in 2020. He is the first Republican to win both the Electoral College and the popular vote since George W. Bush won the presidential election in 2004 and, perhaps most significantly, the first US president to be elected after being indicted on criminal charges. Taking his character into account, a lot of other “firsts” could be added to this list. Hence, Trump is right to view his victory as unprecedented, or, in his words, “like nobody's ever seen before.”[1]
Since the election results were announced, politicians and the media have treated Trump as the incumbent president, because the sitting president is perceived as incapable of doing anything meaningful between now and the time Trump is sworn in on 20 January 2025. Although under US law, states must officially certify the election results by 11 December and the Electoral College must convene on 17 December, these will be mere formalities in the absence of any challenges to such a sweeping victory.
What are we to expect from this old/new president? The question has been the subject of volumes of commentary, analysis, and conjecture. Opinions vary widely, though all converge on the conviction that US domestic and foreign policy will change significantly. The president-elect has voiced positions and made pledges that should be taken seriously, even when stripped of their campaign fervour. Given that Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote (by a margin of 1.7 percent) after having lost the previous election; the widely held belief among Trump supporters that his opponent’s victory in 2020 was ill-gotten; and the Republican Party’s success in securing a majority in both houses of Congress,[2] it would be foolish to shrug off Trump’s stated agenda as mere talk.
Given the president-elect’s evident control over the Republican Party, the Republican majorities in Congress, and a solid right-wing majority on the Supreme Court, three members of which are Trump appointees, the US system of checks and balances is likely to be stymied to a certain degree. Therefore, while not endowed with absolute powers, Trump may still be able to push through a major part of his agenda. Moreover, he is fully aware of this, as evidenced by his boasts of having received “an unprecedented and powerful mandate.”[3] US institutions and the international order that has been in place since World War II will not enable Trump to carry out all the campaign promises he has made to his base, especially since some of his agenda is self-contradictory or unenforceable. Nevertheless, he will be able to follow through on other parts.
This conclusion is based not so much on Trump’s campaign as it is on his previous term in office and what we know about the individuals he has named for key posts in his administration and his closest advisors. Therefore, it is important to bear in mind, firstly, that in his previous term, Trump implemented some of his electoral pledges through executive orders and, secondly, despite his attempt to distance himself from “Project 2025”, a far-right initiative formulated by the conservative Heritage Foundation aimed at restructuring the US federal government,[4] it should not be forgotten that its authors and contributors revolve in his orbit.
[1]“Donald Trump's Victory Speech in Full: Transcript,”
Newsweek, 6/11/2024, accessed on 19/11/2024, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9zPN4.
[2] Republicans managed to regain their majority in the Senate after having lost it in 2021 by picking up four seats that had been under Democratic control in Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Montana. John Thune, R-South Dakota, was elected Senate Majority Leader for the next two years, replacing Mitch McConnell, who will be stepping down in January 2025. Thune is a close ally of McConnell. The GOP also retained its majority in the House of Representatives, with projected results indicating that the Republicans will gain the 218 out of 435 seats required to retain control of this chamber. Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), a close Trump ally who became Speaker of the House last year, has announced his intention to remain in this position.
Lauren Fedor, “US Midterm Elections 2024: Senate Results,”
Financial Times, November 14, 2024, accessed on 11/17/2024, at:
www.ft.com.
A Republican majority in both houses of Congress will grant Trump greater control, placing fewer restrictions on him than those he faced during his first term in relation, for example, to filling cabinet positions, appointing new justices to the Supreme Court, implementing his policies, and influencing legislation of relevance to spending and taxes. Despite facing opposition during his first term from Republicans Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and Paul Ryan, the House Speaker, the Senate under McConnell’s leadership ratified 234 of his nominees, including three Supreme Court justices. However, some think it likely that the presence of independents in the Senate, as well as moderate Republicans such as Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, may impede some of his plans, beginning with the confirmation hearings for his administrative nominees.
See “What a Republican Trifecta will Mean for Governing,”
The Economist, 7/11/2024, accessed on 16/11/2024, at:
https://acr.ps/1L9zQ28.
[3] “Donald Trump's Victory Speech in Full: Transcript.”
