Future of the Yemen conflict after the Withdrawal of Emirati Forces

On 8 July 2019, the United Arab Emirates announced its intention to reduce and redeploy its forces in Yemen, as part of its transition from a “military first” to a “peace first” strategy. The decision raised questions about its implications on the ground, and the fate of the Arab alliance, which has already shrunk to just Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and the future of the conflict in Yemen between the UN sanctioned government, represented by President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, and the de facto authority in Sana'a, Ansar Allah (the Houthis).

Strength and Concentration of UAE Forces

The Military and Security Forces Supporting the UAE Presence

Security Belt Forces

Southern security formations spread around the governorates of Aden, Lahj, Abyan and Dhale. A number of them are participating in a second group of attacking forces on the West Coast, such as the 20th brigade, and the 3rd brigade back-up and support. The back-up and support forces are the combined entity of the security belt forces and other support brigades. However, the so-called security belt forces have been called "backup and support forces" due to the prominent field activity of the belt forces.

Elite Forces

These are southern military formations, named the “urban elite” spread around Hadramout coast and the “Shabwaan elite” spread around the governorate of Shabwa. Attempts to form elite forces in Mahara and Socotra have failed; they have remained linked to legitimate government forces.

Combined forces

The Nature and Causes of the UAE Withdrawal

The UAE forces stationed in the southern provinces are still in their bases, despite the transfer of tanks stationed in the port of Aden to the UAE command center in Brega. According to a new map, so far there has been a reduction in the number of troops and a re-positioning of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, dictated by common interests and internal and regional circumstances that played a role in this decision. These circumstances include:

Tension in the Gulf region due to the escalation of the US-Iranian dispute, accompanied by the sabotage of four oil tankers off the coast of Fujairah on 12 May 2019. The Iranians downed a US drone, believed to have been launched from a military base UAE.[9] The targeting of these ships may have prompted the UAE to review its tough policy towards Iran and its Houthi allies, fearing any potential confrontation with its economy, which is entirely dependent on the stability of the region.[10]
There are Saudi-UAE understandings to share influence in Yemen, so that the UAE's influence is concentrated in Yemeni maritime areas linked to its security and economic interests, especially in the south and Bab al-Mandab.
The absence of any prospects of resolving the conflict with the Houthis, after the failure of the Stockholm agreement.[11]
Increased international pressure to stop the war in Yemen, and growing criticism of the Saudi and UAE roles because of the humanitarian tragedies caused by the continuation of the conflict.
The rise of official and popular Yemeni rejection of the UAE a result of its practices in support of the secessionist forces and undermining the authority of the government.
The UAE‘s preference for indirect support strategy, as the safest and least expensive option, to avoid bearing any more material, military and political losses, as well as reassurance to its internal allies, to carry out the field role by proxy, and leaving the anti-terrorism forces to remain as they are.[12]

The Implications of the UAE Withdrawal

The most likely consequences of the withdrawal of UAE troops from Yemen can be identified as follows:

Implications on the Ground

The government army leadership was able to lay its hands, in part, on the joint forces on the west coast. It can be expected that the Sarawah front in Marib will be restored after the departure of the UAE forces. Under the leadership of its commander, Major General Abd al-Rab al-Shadadi, who was killed in October 2016, it was one of the most active fronts, and one of the gates to enter Sana'a.

The Repercussions for the Saudi - UAE Alliance

Conclusion

The UAE forces have been involved in the Arab alliance in Yemen since 2015. From the outset, the UAE focused on Aden, the famous historic port, the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea coasts, strategic islands such as Perim island (Mayyun) and Socotra. Therefore, during the last years of the war, their forces were stationed in these areas in an attempt to integrate their presence along the coast.

The declared goals of the alliance were to "restore the government and defeat the Houthi coup". Yet he UAE's strategy has gone beyond that by establishing and supporting armed militias independent of the government, some of them separatists, some tribal, some Salafist, and others led by warlords. These militias have become another obstacle to the return of government. Relations soured with President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi and the war escalated into a humanitarian catastrophe that led the UAE to withdraw quietly from some areas, especially in the north. This will probably not stop the war soon, but it will weigh heavily on Saudi Arabia as a result of the increased burdens of continuing it, and this alone could go beyond exacerbating the differences in attitudes and interests between the two allies.