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Situation Assessment 30 January, 2025

The Gaza Deal, Trump, and What to Expect from His Policy on Palestine

The Unit for Political Studies

The Unit for Political Studies is the Center’s department dedicated to the study of the region’s most pressing current affairs. An integral and vital part of the ACRPS’ activities, it offers academically rigorous analysis on issues that are relevant and useful to the public, academics and policy-makers of the Arab region and beyond. The Unit for Policy Studies draws on the collaborative efforts of a number of scholars based within and outside the ACRPS. It produces three of the Center’s publication series: Situation Assessment, Policy Analysis, and Case Analysis reports. 

After more than 15 months of brutal, destructive Israeli aggression against Gaza, Qatari-led mediation efforts in cooperation with Egypt and the United States finally produced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in January. Based on a plan proposed by US then-president Joe Biden in lateacrobat Icon May 2024, the deal was unanimously approved by the United Nations Security Council.[1] It entered into force on 19 January, the day before Biden’s departure from the White House and the inauguration of Donald Trump, who was quick to claim credit for the agreement. The implementation of the truce will come under close scrutiny, given Trump’s stance on the Palestinian issue.[2]

Biden’s Agreement, or Trump’s?

Statements from the Biden and Trump teams indicate that in the final days before the ceasefire agreement was announced, their respective envoys Brett McGurk and Steve Witkoff divided roles between them. While McGurk remained in Doha to oversee the details of indirect negotiations between the Palestinian and Israeli delegations, Witkoff was touring the region, including pushing the deal forward at a crucial meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, which McGurk joined by phone.[3] Despite the controversy in Washington over who played the biggest role in bringing about the agreement, several things are clear:

First, the general framework of the agreement is the same as that proposed by Biden in late May last year, which he said at the time had been suggested by Netanyahu – although the Israeli premier promptly disavowed it after Hamas accepted it.

Second, Trump’s involvement clearly accelerated efforts to get an agreement over the line, something the Biden administration had failed to do for nearly eight months. Some believe that Trump intervened in two decisive ways:

  1. His threat, in early December 2024, that unless Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip were released before his inauguration, everyone in the Middle East would pay the price.[4] Trump renewed his ultimatum on January 7, saying that if they were not released, “all hell will break out in the Middle East… it will not be good, frankly, for anyone.” Trump’s words appear to have been critical to shifting domestic Israeli dynamics and compelling Netanyahu to cave in to US pressure. The incoming president’s second threat was directed not at Hamas but at Netanyahu, according to Washington insiders, who believe that Trump would not have harmed Hamas more than Biden has over 15 months of support for Israel’s war. According to Steve Bannon, Trump’s former senior advisor and one of his closest associates, the president-elect’s threat “wasn’t a warning to Hamas. It was a warning to Netanyahu.”[5] Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agreed, saying that Netanyahu, who had previously rejected the deal, finally approved it “because he’s afraid of Trump.”[6]
  2. The Trump team’s direct involvement in the final days of negotiations, specifically that of Witkoff. Israeli and US sources indicate that Trump’s envoy contacted Netanyahu’s office on Friday, 10 January, telling them that he would arrive in Tel Aviv the following day to meet the Israeli premier. When Netanyahu’s office declined to accept, citing the Jewish Sabbath, Witkoff – a Jewish real estate developer and Trump insider – bluntly insisted on meeting Netanyahu,[7] who complied. That pressure appears to have set things in motion.

The progress made after Trump entered the fray has prompted a number of Democrats, angered by the Biden administration’s bias towards Israel and pandering to Netanyahu, to accuse Biden and his team of being either too weak, too incompetent or too partisan to effectively pressure the Israeli PM.[8] The Biden administration consistently claimed that Hamas was the “main obstacle” to reaching an agreement. However, leaks from US and Israeli officials confirm that the main hindrance was Netanyahu, who deliberately sabotaged every potential deal by making new demands, a strategy the Biden administration hid in order to conceal its own inability to stand up to him, fearing it would lose American Jewish votes and political donations in the run-up to November’s presidential election. The Times of Israel reported that a single meeting with Witkoff had had a greater impact on Netanyahu than a whole year of meetings with Biden’s envoys. Strikingly, Trump shared the Times of Israel report on his “Truth Social” social media platform.[9]

Indeed, that was not the only implicit warning the incoming president appears to have sent to Netanyahu. The day after threatening “hell” in the Middle East, he shared a video clip on Truth Social in which Columbia University economics professor Jeffrey Sachs described Netanyahu in vulgar terms, accusing him of being “obsessed” with trying to drag the US into a war against Iran and saying the Israeli PM had “gotten us into endless wars, and because of the power of all this in US politics, he has gotten his way.”[10]

Some experts have suggested that Trump’s hinted messages to Netanyahu reflect a complex relationship between the two men over the years. Trump gave Netanyahu unprecedented support during his first term as US president, from 2017-2021, including by recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over Jerusalem and moving the US embassy there, recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights and driving the “Abraham Accords” normalization process with Arab states. However, their relationship deteriorated after Netanyahu congratulated Biden on his victory in the 2020 election, which Trump has never conceded. Although their relationship began to improve after they met at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida in July last year, it never returned to the status quo ante.

Third, Netanyahu believes that he has achieved substantial gains over 15 months of war, and now needs to transform them into political and strategic capital in his relationship with the US.

Fourth, Netanyahu has faced pressure from the Israeli military and security establishment and the families of Israeli prisoners, as well as growing international pressure on both Israel and Netanyahu personally.

Finally, the rules of the game in Israeli politics have shifted with the change of guard in Washington. Netanyahu’s desire to please Trump appears to have outweighed his fear of the extremist members of his governing coalition, especially Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. According to Israeli reports, Netanyahu agreed to the US proposal after securing guarantees that Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party would not withdraw from the ruling coalition in response, meaning the government would not fall even if Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party quit – as it subsequently did.[11] It appears that some elements of the Israeli far right expect US concessions over the West Bank and on the Iranian nuclear file during Trump’s second term, as well as being in no doubt that Trump will be biased towards them regarding the future of the Gaza Strip and Hamas control there.

Trump’s Calculations

Trump’s role in achieving the ceasefire agreement should not obscure the reality of his calculations and his blatant bias towards Israel.

For a start, the returning president’s narcissistic personality means he believes he is able to achieve what others, including previous US presidents, have failed to do. This point is clear in his Truth Social post on 15 January: “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies.”[12]

Trump’s calculations are also related to his overall foreign policy approach, which aims to distance Washington from conflicts that are not directly linked to its national security and strategic interests. Although Trump does not mind supporting US allies per se, he believes this should be transactional, based on mutual interests, and must deliver clear and substantial gains to the US.

Trump’s insistence on a ceasefire before he assumed the presidency also stemmed from the fact that he does not want to deal with a complex legacy from his predecessor, which could interfere with his domestic and foreign policy priorities.

Finally, according to British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, Trump wants to “change the game” in the Middle East by reviving a push for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, in a continuation of the “Abraham Accords.”[13]

Conclusion

There is plenty to indicate that the second Trump administration will be biased toward Israel. On the day he was inaugurated, 20 January, Trump issued an executive order cancelling Biden-era sanctions against extremist Jewish settler groups and individuals accused of violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. The White House announced that Trump had cancelled Executive Order 14115, issued on 2 February last year, which had provided for certain sanctions “on Persons Undermining Peace, Security, and Stability” in the territory,[14] targeting several Israeli settlers and groups by freezing their US assets and generally prohibiting Americans from dealing with them.

Trump’s executive order was an extension of his approach toward the settlements during his first term; in 2019 he abandoned the traditional US position that the settlements are illegal, something Biden later restored. Trump was also expected to lift the Biden administration’s freeze on the supply of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel during his first days in office.[15]

As for the future of the Gaza Strip, Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, has insisted that Hamas will not return to controlling the enclave, warning that “if Hamas reneges on this deal and … backs out, moves the goalposts, what have you, we will support Israel in doing what it has to do.” He suggested the Strip could be controlled by “an Arab-supported security force” or under an arrangement involving the Palestinians.[16]

Another key area of concern is the West Bank, which is under critical danger in light of Trump’s presidency. Not only is Trump likely to lift US objections to Israeli settlements there, but may also allow Israel to annex some 60% of the territory, according to his January 2020 plan “Peace to Prosperity: A Vision to Improve the Lives of the Palestinian and Israeli People,” known in the media as the “Deal of the Century.”

In August last year, about two weeks after meeting Netanyahu in Florida, Trump said Israel was very small on the map, and that thought should be given to ways to expand it. Even the Gaza Strip may not be safe from Israel’s annexation plans; Trump has repeatedly talked in admiring terms about the coast of the Gaza Strip and its location, saying that, if rebuilt, it could be “better than Monaco.”[17]


[1] “Statement from President Joe Biden,” U.S. Embassy in Israel, 15/1/2025, accessed on 23/1/2025, at:

https://acr.ps/1L9zRiX.

[2] “Trump and Biden clash over who was behind prisoner swap deal,” Aljazeera.net, 16/1/2025, accessed 23/1/2025 (in Arabic), at: https://acr.ps/1L9zQVx.

[3] Ibid.

[4] Tom O'Connor & Ellie Cook, “How Trump Pushed Netanyahu to Agree to Gaza Ceasefire,” Newsweek, 17/1/2025, accessed on 23/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zR1m.

[5] Jamie Dettmer, “Trump was ‘The Closer’ on Gaza Cease-Fire Deal,” Politico, 17/1/2025, accessed on 23/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zR1n.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Ibid.

[8] Andrew Prokop, “How Much Credit does Trump Really Deserve for the Gaza Ceasefire?” Vox, 16/1/2025, accessed on 23/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zQvt.

[9] Jacob Magid, “Arab officials: Trump Envoy Swayed Netanyahu More in one Meeting than Biden did all Year,” Times of Israel, 15/1/2025, accessed on 23/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zQkT.

[10] “Trump Posts Clip of Prof Calling Netanyahu ‘Obsessive’ about Getting US to Fight Iran,” Times of Israel, 8/1/2025, accessed on 23/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zQRw.

[11] O’Connor.

[12] Steve Holland, “Biden Says Gaza Deal Based on his Framework While Trump Claims Credit,” Reuters, 15/1/2025, accessed 23/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zQJ0.

[13] Nicholas Cecil, “Donald Trump Wants to 'Change the Game' in Middle East with Israel-Saudi Arabia deal, Says David Lammy,” The Standard, 20/1/2025, accessed on 23/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zQYg.

[14] Jonathan Landay & Humeyra Pamuk, “Trump Cancels Sanctions on Israeli Settlers in West Bank,” Reuters, 20/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zQQE.

[15] “Trump to lift pause on 2,000-pound bomb supply to Israel, Walla News reports,” Reuters, 20/1/2025, accessed on 23/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zQXX.

[16] “Trump’s National Security Advisor: Hamas Will Not Return to Ruling Gaza,” Aljazeera.net, 19/1/2025, accessed on 23/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zQHL.

[17] Rebecca Falconer & Sareen Habeshia, “Trump says Gaza” could be better than Monaco” Once it's Rebuilt,” AXIOS, 8/10/2024, accessed on 23/1/2025, at: https://acr.ps/1L9zQKA.