Introduction
Events have moved fast since late September, almost a year into Hezbollah’s so-called “support front” operations in solidarity with Gaza, when Israel launched full-scale hostilities against Lebanon. The war has compounded the effects of one of the worst economic and financial crises in modern times, which had already been pummelling Lebanon since the final quarter of 2019.
There is often a blurred line between the destruction caused by the latest war and the impact of the economic and monetary crises, but it is clear that the widespread devastation that has hit Lebanon – resulting in displacement, deaths and injuries, and the loss of agricultural land and property – will make it impossible, in the short to medium term, to return even to the grim status quo before the war.
The flare-up of hostilities into a full-scale conflict coincided with the end of the summer holidays, the start of the new school year, and the beginning of the harvest season, with farmers preparing the ground for the next. This placed a heavy burden on the Lebanese, depleting their savings and slashing their already weakened purchasing power.
One might compare the current situation to the impact of the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. However, the damage caused by that conflict was geographically limited, and the fighting lasted just 33 days. The destruction this time around is on a much greater scale, and comes on the back of far harsher economic conditions leading up to the war, along with a more turbulent domestic political climate and the worst security and geopolitical situation in decades.
The situation today casts serious doubts over Lebanon’s ability to recover yet again, repair the damage, and reset its economy to enable it to return to growth. These and other questions may not find clear answers even among stakeholders themselves, who are fully aware that past experiences – and their inability to come up with realistic solutions to previous, less deadly crises – offer little hope for the Lebanese economy and its prospects moving forward.
