On 10 April 2023, The ACRPS Iranian Studies Unit hosted a panel titled “Iran-Saudi Relations: A New Beginning.” The panel consisted of Ariabarzan Mohammadi, Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, and Aziz Alghashian, Fellow with the Sectarianism, Proxies and De-sectarianisation project (SEPAD). The event was moderated by Mehran Kamrava, Head of the ISU and Professor of Government at Georgetown University Qatar.

The panel discussed the regional and international ramifications of the recent China-brokered agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Ariabarzan began by delving into the deal’s significance for Iranian foreign policy and the country’s ties with its neighbors. According to Ariabarzan, Raisi’s administration has promoted a good neighborhood policy in an effort to preserve good relations with Iran’s immediate neighbors. The position of China as facilitator of this historic agreement underlines Iran’s “Look East” policy. “The agreement will entail significant Chinese investments in the region, and there is a strong likelihood that this reconciliation will be converted into a regional agreement to address fundamental concerns confronting these countries,” Ariabarzan said. On the region’s shifting dynamics, Alghashian noted that “a new logic is taking place, and there is a regional agency with regional countries taking the initiative to solve their own issues.” These actors have realized that antagonism is not in their best interests. Commenting on the deal’s impact on Saudi-Israeli relations, Alghashian remarked that “the notion of Saudi-Israeli alliance against Iran has always been exaggerated and denies the complexity and pragmatism between Saudi Arabia and Israel historically.” Alghashian believed that the existence of shared objectives does not imply an explicit partnership between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The rhetoric of the Saudi-Israeli front against Iran, according to Alghashian, is risky because it downplays the region’s complexity.

The strategic thinking of Saudi elites has changed considerably of late since negotiations were proposed by Iran for a long time. This, according to Ariabarzan, has to do with the regional system of the Middle East, which prevents any one country from becoming the sole power in a region resistant to hegemony. “I hope that things are different this time, especially in light of the emerging multipolar world order. In these unsettling times, regional countries need to consolidate their relations in the face of strong poles.” Ariabarzan stated that this agreement is the outcome of both regional and international events, such as the war in Ukraine and the oil wars. Diversification is also important in Saudi strategic thinking. They have diversified their source of state legitimacy, economy, security, and alliances.

In response to a question about whether Iran and Saudi Arabia provided security assurances, Alghashain stated that both have pledged to invest in a more secure region and address their grievances. He underlined the importance of taking a more nuanced approach to Iran’s connections with non-state actors, as these actors, too, have their own interests, agency, and calculations; Alghashian views this as a potential concern in the future. Alghashian concurred with Ariabarzan in saying that this agreement was based on collaboration, echoing the rhetoric of the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his goal for a prosperous region. He highlighted this is a process and Saudi Arabia’s regional strategic calculus aims to avoid instability and security vacuums. “At the heart of this is economic interdependency, and China is more appropriate than the United States to play a facilitative role in this regard.” The Saudi government believes that the only party that might exert any real pressure on Iran is China. Despite its efforts to diversify its relationships, investments, and strategic thinking, Saudi Arabia sees a multipolar world as being asymmetrical and prefers the United States.

Analyzing the impact of the Iran-Saudi agreement on the JCPOA, Ariabarzan mentioned that, according to the Iranian government’s official discourse, it is seeking to establish positive ties with its neighbors, which would benefit its economy without the JCPOA. The Rouhani government tried to engage the European Union and convince it to act as a guarantor of the JCPOA. He was unsuccessful, and now, with the Raisi administration, Iranians are adopting a new strategy. “They are starting from the region and the East, and by resolving the protracted Iran-Saudi dispute, there is no longer any justification for international actors, such as the United States, to blame Iran for anything wrongdoing that occurs in the region and to accuse Iran of being a source of insecurity.” This agreement has strengthened Iran’s position in the nuclear negotiations.

Lastly, Ariabarzan commented on whether or not the Iranians will honor the agreement and fulfill its obligations. “Economic interdependence and intraregional trade, which in turn will deepen regional integration, are the only means to assure long-lasting security and peace.” Cold peace is no longer beneficial to any party since it does not result in a prosperous region.