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Case Analysis 07 July, 2024

Iran’s Unexpected 2024 Presidential Election

Mehran Kamrava

Professor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar and Head of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies. Kamrava has published extensively, including, most recently, How Islam Rules in Iran: Theology and Theocracy in the Islamic Republic (Cambridge University Press, 2024); Righteous Politics: Power and Resilience in Iran (Cambridge University Press, 2023); A Dynastic History of Iran: From the Qajars to the Pahlavis (Cambridge University Press, 2022); Triumph and Despair: In Search of Iran’s Islamic Republic (Oxford University Press, 2022); A Concise History of Revolution (Cambridge University Press, 2020); Troubled Waters: Insecurity in the Persian Gulf (Cornell University Press, 2018); Inside the Arab State (Oxford University Press, 2018); The Impossibility of Palestine: History, Geography, and the Road Ahead (Yale University Press, 2016); Qatar: Small State, Big Politics (Cornell University Press, 2015); The Modern Middle East: A Political History since the First World War, 3rd ed. (University of California Press, 2013); and Iran’s Intellectual Revolution (Cambridge University Press, 2008). His edited books include The Sacred Republic: Power and Institutions in Iran (2023); The Routledge Handbook of Persian Gulf Politics (2020); The Great Game in West Asia: Iran, Turkey, and the Southern Caucasus (2017); Fragile Politics: Weak States in the Greater Middle East (2016); Beyond the Arab Spring: The Evolving Ruling Bargain in the Middle East (2015); The Political Economy of the Persian Gulf (2012); The Nuclear Question in the Middle East (2012); and The International Politics of the Persian Gulf (2011). His personal website is: mehran kamrava.com.

Introduction

acrobat Icon On July 5, 2024, Iranians went to the ballot box to elect a new president following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. With one exception, recent presidential elections in Iran have been full of surprises, and the 2024 elections did not disappoint. The one exception occurred in 2021, when the country’s hybrid authoritarian system reverted to its authoritarian impulse and ensured the election of Ebrahim Raisi, at the time the head of the judiciary and the establishment’s candidate. Following Raisi’s death, only three years into his tenure in office, Iranians originally went to the polls on June 28, 2024, to take part in the fourteenth presidential election of the Islamic Republic since the success of the 1978-1979 revolution. With none of the four candidates securing the necessary 50 percent of the votes, the elections went to a second round held a week later. In a contest that went to the wire and remained unpredictable to the very end, Masoud Pezeshkian emerged victorious with 53 percent of the votes.

This brief essay examines the candidates running for the Islamic Republic’s second highest office, the issues they raised in their respective campaigns, and their efforts to attract voters. The essay starts with a summary of the significance of Raisi’s death for the Islamic Republic and the system’s efforts at crisis management, followed by a brief history of presidential elections in the Islamic Republic’s forty-five-year history. The essay ends with a discussion of the 2024 elections and offers a few thoughts on what might be expected from President Pezeshkian’s new administration.